周三A股继续下跌。A股主要指数均下跌超过1个百分点。申万28个行业跟前一交易日一样只有三个行业上涨，分别是综合、公用事业和传媒，跌幅居前的行业仍然是有色金属、钢铁和化工。国储局抛售电解铝储备传闻仍然发酵。港股跌幅超过A股，主要指数均下跌2个百分点以上，12个综合行业全部下跌，其中跌幅居前的是原材料、工业和可选必需。北上资金净流入50亿人民币，南下资金净流出69.4亿人民币。

A股港股连续大跌。本周A股和港股大跌是对全球经济乐观预期的修复，欧洲疫情再起，部分新兴市场国家加息，美国虽疫苗接种超预期，但疫情仍有再次蔓延的风险。我们认为全球经济复苏是渐进曲折的，但总体复苏方向是确定的。A股和港股从春节后至今已调整了一个半月，抱团股虽跌幅较大，但估值仍处在高位，需观察未来盈利增长情况。不过很多其他板块和个股的估值都处在很有吸引力的区间，不易对市场过度悲观。从2020年业绩情况看，很多企业业绩高速增长，并且2021年前景展望很有吸引力。有投资人担忧当前国际政治形势。最新消息是美国国务卿布林肯号召北约联合对抗中国在科技方面的崛起。中美会谈后，国际形势最新进展预示新冷战格局似乎在形成。对我国而言，经历了2018年的中美贸易战，国内很多企业已经具备承受打击的能力，而且双循环的一个目的就是要构筑国内大市场，降低对外需的依赖程度。此辛丑不是彼辛丑。现在我们不仅有欣赏“清风拂山岗，明月照大江”的实力，也有“他自狠来他自恶，我自一口真气足”的自信。

欧洲3月份经济领先指标超预期。IHS Markit数据显示，欧元区今年3月制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）初值意外由前值57.9升至62.4，为1997年6月以来最高值，市场预期回落至57.6。制造业产出由前值57.6升至63，创有数据以来新高，因全球需求继续由疫情大流行中恢复。新订单增速加快，欧元区制造商创造就业机会为2018年8月以来最高，主要受惠法国及德国推动。欧元区3月服务业PMI初值由前值45.7升至48.8，创七个月新高，市场预期46。其中服务商投入成本增速为去年2月以来最高。欧元区3月综合产出指数初值意外半年来首呈扩张，由前值48.8升至52.5，创八个月高，市场原预期升至49.1，主要受惠制造业产出增速加快推动。商品和服务平均价格上涨至2019年1月以来最高水平，商品价格创近十年最大涨幅。

美股下跌。科技股大跌，纳指下跌2个百分点，道指微跌。

A-share fell for the second day on slightly increased volume. Only 3 sectors out of the 28 rose, which were conglomerate, utilities and media. All of the 12 sectors in HK market fell with raw material, industrial and discretionary consumption falling the most. The market rumor that State Supplies Bureau was to release 50-ton electrolytic aluminum still pressured upstream stocks. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 5 billion. And south-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$6.94 billion.

Why A-share and HK stocks continued falling? The market corrected its previous optimistic outlook of the world economy as the pandemic surged in Europe, several emerging markets raised interest rate and the US pandemic seemed to spread again despite faster vaccination rollout. While most of the group-holding stocks’ valuation is still at hefty levels and need robust earnings growth to support the high valuation, many other sectors and stocks have strong earnings growth with reasonable valuation. Many companies who released strong 2020 earnings also provided promising growth prospect in 2021. Hence, it is unnecessary to keep pessimistic about the stock market overall. Some investors worry about geopolitics. We believe that China’s economy has decreased its reliance on export to a great extent. Moreover, dual-circulation aims to develop domestic market to deal with threats from the outside. China is no longer that nation 120 years ago. We have come a long way to stand up and to benefit from our own strength and confidence.  

The European leading indicator was better than expectation. European manufacturing Purchase Manager Index (PMI)in March 2009 rose from 57.9 in Feb. to 62.4, the highest reading since June 1997 as global economy emerged from the pandemic. Service PMI rose from 45.7 in Feb.to 48.8 in March, the highest reading in 7 months. The European stocks rose while the US stocks fell as tech stocks tumbled. 

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