壹 从众心理

      格林斯潘在《动荡的世界》一书中分析了在股价上涨和下跌的过程中投资者心理发挥的作用。他指出在美国上世纪的股市上涨过程中，从众心理发挥了很大作用，但是股价上涨的幅度似乎一次比一次弱。我们认为这也许是因为投资者变得越来越理性。在1929年大萧条前5年，股市年均涨幅为28%；2000年互联网泡沫破灭前5年，股市年均涨幅为22%；而2007年前5年股价年均涨幅为12%。

      贰 恐惧心理

      他同时指出恐惧是比狂热强烈得多的人类心理倾向，因此，下跌往往比上涨来的剧烈。而克服恐惧是件知易行难的事情。他举例说许多经验丰富的投资者都在1987年10月19日创纪录的股灾中抛售了股票。虽然他们知道是错误的，但财富蒸发所带来的痛苦导致他们想通过摆脱股市来寻求安慰。

      叁 信用利差

      恐惧或者风险可以用信用利差来反应。标准普尔10年期BB+级债券，即垃圾债券收益率与10年期国债收益率的利差在股价与房地产泡沫的高潮期收缩到2%，而在雷曼事件后的2008年金融危机高潮期则达到了近9%。在我国，信用利差也是观察风险偏好的一个重要指标。通常选用较低级别的利率债与较高评级的信用债利率的差异来确定信用利差。

      肆 如何克服恐惧心理

      对于散户而言，恐惧发挥决定性的作用。因为一旦亏完了，散户就出局了。而只有资金雄厚的投资者才能够承受周期性的市场冲击，利用股市大跌建立有效的投资组合。那作为散户如何能够面对大幅回撤的股价和净值损失呢？首先，散户炒股也要有纪律性。如果回撤到一定程度，要及时止损。其次，对于处在防御性行业的公司，如估值不高，则可以等待危机度过。这些公司一般会持续增长，股价会创出新高。但如估值过高，则等待的时间会很长。如上世纪70年代的美国漂亮50，投资者需要等待10年股价才回到高点。最后，最好的避险办法是对公司有比较深入的了解，同时在估值较低时介入。这样，就不用担心系统性风险。

      伍 美股大涨

      A股微跌。美国上周初请失业人数好于预期，公司盈利超预期，美股大涨。

I. Herd instinct

The ex-Federal Chairman Alan Greenspan ever wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that psychology plays a key role in asset prices volatility. He pointed out that herd instinct actually determined stock prices going up in the last century. Yet the price increase dwindled in bull markets.In the five years before 1929 stock crash the stock index rose at an annual rate of 28%. But it was 22% and 12% per annum on average respectively five years before 2000 and 2007, which led to internet bubble burst and global financial crises. It seems that investors become more sensible with time passing by. 

II. Horror

He also pointed out that horror is a type of psychology that comes with much more power than mania. As a result, stock prices always fall more sharply than the rise. And overcoming horror is much easier said than done. A case in point is stock crash on October 19th,1987 when stock index saw the largest daily decline. Many sophisticated investors sell stocks although they knew that it was wrong. The big pain of seeing fortune loss made them only want to get out of stock markets. 

III. Credit spread 

Horror or the risk investors are faced with can be measured by credit spread. The credit spread between 10-year junk bond and 10-year treasury yield narrowed to 200 basis point at the peak of stock and property market in 2007 and expanded to 900 basis point after Lehman Brothers went bankruptcy. 

IV. How to overcome horror?

Individual investors are manipulated by horror more than institutional investors. As the game would be over if they lose all of their money. For institutional investors who usually have more capital to leverage, they can make their portfolio better when stock market crash. So for individual investors it is important to have disciplines in cutting losses. Moreover, they should know the stocks well, which would also help them to endure the temporary losses. Lastly, it would be wise to buy good companies at low valuation levels. This can help them to tide over any market risks.  

V. The US stocks rallied

A-share fell slightly. The US stock rallied on good earnings report and better initial jobless claims last week.

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