壹 上市可能是救命稻草

      近期，不仅有房地产公司因多元化经营导致巨额债务无法偿付，还有个别制造业的民营企业也爆出因重大亏损和运营困难，无法偿还债务的消息。巧合的是这两家企业都曾经申请在A股进行下属公司的IPO和借壳上市，但均未得到批准。也有企业近期撤回A股的上市申请。从其披露信息看，该企业的债务水平也较高。A股的IPO也许是某些企业的救命稻草，但如果允许这些企业进行IPO，很可能会加剧系统性风险。

       贰 高杠杆率加剧危机对经济的冲击

       前美联储主席艾伦·格林斯潘在《动荡的世界》中分析了债务的重要性。他指出1987年股市大跌和2000年的互联网泡沫破灭并没有对经济造成较大冲击，主要就是因为美国实体和金融机构当时的杠杆率较低，而2008年全球金融危机对经济造成自1929年大萧条以来的重大冲击，主要原因就是杠杆率过高。他假设如果2008年的房地产抵押贷款支持证券有低杠杆机构持有，如养老金和共同基金，这些机构也会遭受巨额损失，但是由于债务违约而导致的破产事件将会少很多，这样对经济的冲击程度也会小很多。

       叁 影子银行帮助提高杠杆率

       我们在危机的启示中讨论了人们对危机的认识通常是不足的。而这个不足主要是因为危机初始时，监管机构和市场参与者很难搞清楚杠杆率的高低。2007年底，雷曼兄弟的杠杆率高达30倍以上，而其他幸运度过危机的投资银行杠杆率也都不低，比如美林证券的杠杆率接近28倍。这是从公开信息中看出的杠杆率。但正如桥水创始人达利奥所说的影子银行在加杠杆的过程中发挥了重要作用，这也使得实际的杠杆率远高于公开信息披露的杠杆率。

      肆 我国杠杆率总体稳定

      我们在去年底发表的信用债无序违约是股市的阿克琉斯之踵吗？分析了我国的影子银行，包括委托贷款和信托贷款的同比增速以及存量情况。可以看出我国影子银行的新增规模增速是下降的，而存量也在缓慢减少。但加杠杆无处不在。如果一些企业通过上市而得以继续加杠杆行为，那A股IPO岂不成了唐僧肉吗？这一定不是二级市场投资人希望看到的。

     伍 上证指数上周下跌

    上证指数是全球16个主要国家和地区指数中唯一下跌的。美股上周上涨，好于预期的企业3季度业绩暂时压制了对经济滞涨的担忧。美国11月份将会接收国际旅客，市场对经济复苏的前景谨慎乐观

I. High-leveraged companies' IPO were rejected

It was reported that some private company in manufacturing sector was faced with big losses and poor performance of businesses. As a result it was not able to pay big amount of debt. Before that some property company also was trapped in big debt burden. It seems coincidental that both companies ever applied for A-share IPO and was not approved. We also noticed that a well-known company withdrew its IPO application lately, whose debt burden was not low based on its disclosed information. Thanks to the decisions from supervising agencies that did not allow these companies to be listed in A-share. 

II. High leverage poses big risk for economy

Actually, debt plays a key role in economic crises. Alan Greenspan, the ex-Federal Chairman in the US, wrote in his book “Risk, Human Nature and the Future of Forecasting” that 1987 stock market crash and 2000 internet bubble burst did not cause economic to crash.The reason is that leverage levels were low during these two periods. Yet 2008 global financial crises caused the US economy to suffer the deepest recession from 1929. The reason is that leverage levels were too high. Lehman Brothers’ net gearing ratio was more than 30x at the end of 2007. Some investment banks that were lucky to get through the crises also had comparable gearing ratio. 

III. Shadow banking increases leverage

Also shadow banking makes things worse as it increases leverage levels in ways that are hard to be found out. We ever analyzed China’s shadow banking last November and concluded that shadow banking in China was in well controlled. Yet gearing ratio can be increased via many methods. If high-leveraged companies get listed in A-share, this means that their high gearing ratio can be maintained for much longer time. If this happens, the risk of investing in A-share also increases.

IV. Shanghai Composite Index fell last week

A-share lagged behind major stock indexes last week.Shanghai Composite Index was the only one to fall last week among 16 global major indexes. The US stocks rose boosted by better-than-expected 3Q2021 earnings. The worry about stagflation subdued for the moment.

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