壹 股指多上涨

     上证指数年初至上周五10月15日（下同）上涨2.7%，从2月18日的高点下跌2.3%。创业板指年初至今上涨10.6%, 从2月18日高点下跌4%。科创50年初至今下跌2.5%，其高点在2021年8月6日达到，从高点至今下跌15%。

       贰 翻倍股

      指数总体上涨，但个股是分化的。年初至今有2012只股票下跌，但大幅下跌的股票并不多，只有47只个股跌幅在50%以上。2099只股票上涨，578只个股涨幅在50%以上。其中432只个股涨幅超过100%。这些翻倍股大多在锂电池、半导体、新能源和光伏等热门板块，反应资金对这些板块的追捧。除个别股票外，大多市盈率估值都是三位数的水平。少量翻倍股估值不高，有可能会延续涨势。

      叁 腰斩股

     而下跌50%以上的股票可以分为几种情况：一是遭受政策冲击的股票，如教育股；二是债务率较高经营一度陷入危机的房地产股；三是去年的大牛股。这些股票在47只股票中占比接近1/2，占比最高。比如某酱油股，去年上涨63%，今年下跌52%；某手套股，去年上涨9倍多，今年下跌68%；某复合调味料股，去年上涨83%，今年下跌73%。最后一类是今年被ST的股票。如从2月高点算，下跌幅度超过50%的股票一共32只，其中大部分与年初至今下跌50%以上的个股重合。少部分不一样的股票有的是受到个别房地产企业的影响或自身风险暴露。简而言之，今年的腰斩股最有可能是去年的翻倍股。一方面高估值意味着对这些股票的期望很高，而难以达到；另一方面有些股票上涨纯粹是炒作的结果，注定不会长久。

      肆 中国3季度经济数据

      3季度中国经济数据低于预期，一方面受到疫情和限电的干扰，另一方面经济仍处在下行趋势中。低于预期的经济数据并没有对A股和港股构成较大压力，A股和港股均探底回升，反应市场对经济下行预期较充分。但美股道指因中国低于预期的经济数据而下跌，欧洲股指也普跌。虽然美债10年期收益率上涨到1.6%y以上，但科技股仍大幅上涨。纳指和标普连续4天上涨。美股3季度净利润预计同比上涨30%。根据上周各大银行，美国消费者支出能力强劲，支持美国经济持续复苏。预测美股调整的摩根斯坦利策略分析师认为市场比预期的韧性强。

I. Stock Indexes rose  

Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.7% year-to-date (October 15th , the same below) and fell 2.3% from its February high. Chinext Index rose 10.6% and fell 4% from February high. STAR 50 Index fell 2.5% year-to-date and fell 15% from its August high.

II. Stocks that rose more than 100%

While indexes rose broadly, individual stocks performed differently. Year-to-date there were 2012 stocks falling and 2099 stocks that rose. 47 stocks fell more than 50% and 578 stocks rose more than 50%. Also 432 stocks rose more than 100%,which were in lithium battery, photovoltaic, and other new energy-related sectors and semi-conductor sectors. Most of these stocks were valued at more than 100x price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting that market expectation for them are high. 

III. Stocks that fell more than 50%

Those stocks falling more than 50% fell into several categories. The first is that was targeted by policies, such as tutoring stocks. The second is property companies that were in big debt and ran into difficulties in operation. The third is those that rose more than 50% last year. This category comprises of the largest group as about half of the 47 stocks fell into this category. The last group is those stocks that were specially treated. 32 stocks fell more than 50% from February high. Most of them were stocks that fell 50% year-to-date. Some stocks were different due to their own risk exposure. 

IV. Risks associated with high-flying stocks

In summary, stocks that rose more than 100% could fall sharply the following year. The reason is that expectation for them is so high that they could not deliver. Also some stocks rise purely due to speculation. In this case their stock rally would be doomed to fade sometime later.    

V. Market summary

China 3rd quarter economic data came in lower than expected.But both A-share and HK stocks bottomed out, reflecting that market has priced in the slower economic growth. But DOW Index in the US and European stocks fell as investors were concerned about China’s economic growth rate. While the 10-year treasury yield rose above 1.6%, tech stocks rallied. SP 500 and Nasdaq rose for 4 days in a row, boosted by the higher-than-expected earnings growth in 3Q.

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