壹 降准预期落空 

      虽然中国3季度经济数据低于预期，市场普遍预期的降准并没有发生。我国10年期国债收益率也再次回到了3%以上的水平，反应市场对宽松政策的预期落空之后的估值修正。有很多分析师对此做出了解读，有的认为当前的经济不振的主要原因不是需求侧，而是供给侧。而降准是对需求侧进行刺激，因此不是对症下药。有的认为当前流动性并非不充裕，而是实体需求不足，降准不一定能对实体经济的需求产生较大提振作用。

     贰 推绳子

    我们倾向认为在长期债务周期的后期，经济进入低增长、资产低回报阶段，央行难以将刺激性政策转化为支出的增加。这个阶段如果货币发行过多，可能会发生流动性陷阱，同时通胀走高，经济不得不进入痛苦的通胀性去杠杆。这种现象被称作“推绳子”。一个典型例子是德国魏玛共和国在上世纪二十年代所经历的恶性通货膨胀。当时每个德国人口袋中可能都装有几十亿马克，甚至有段时间一个面包就需要 2000 亿马克，而一周的养老金都买不来一杯咖啡。由于纸币价值每秒钟都在变化，商家都不再将售价标示出来。家庭主妇用纸币生火做饭，儿童用纸币叠城堡。在魏玛共和国的通胀性萧条中，每轮央行印钞之后，越来越多的货币不是进入实体经济，而是投入到实物资产（如黄金）和外币。股市短期表现较好，但是在债务危机中总体是下跌的。

     叁 我国经济增速将会企稳

     魏玛共和国的通胀性萧条在中国当然不会发生。我国消费领域通胀水平较低，而生产领域通胀有望见顶回落。四季度中国经济仍会趋势性向下。但货币政策总体上是中性偏宽松的，财政政策会持续发力。明年1季度基建项目的启动将会带动经济企稳。中长期中国经济将会回到潜在增速水平，这个水平是3%、4%还是5%取决于中国劳动生产率的提升程度，也就是取决于中国科技发展水平。我们对短期股市不悲观，对长期股市保持乐观，相信科技创新将推动A股长牛。

     肆 外资流入A股和港股

     A股和港股上涨。人民币对美元走强，距6月初的高点一步之遥。受人民币走强影响，外资流入A股和港股。A股农林牧渔、食品饮料和医药生物涨幅居前，港股工业、必需消费和医疗保健行业涨幅居前。两市周期股和房地产股回落。美股延续上涨态势，上市公司3季度业绩持续超预期。美国10年期国债收益率上涨到1.65%，为五月以来的最高水平。

I. Reserve ratio cut did not happen 

While 3rd quarter GDP growth rate fell in short of expectation in China market reacted to this set of data in a calm way. But many investors are bewildered as to why the reserve ratio cut for banks has not happened yet. Some analysts believed that this was because that economy slowed down in 3rd quarter due to the supply chain disruption. This can’t be solved by cutting reserve ratio. Others thought that given the low demand liquidity injected would not come to the real economy. 

II. Push the string

Our view is that at the later stage of a debt cycle economy slows down and return on investment also comes down. At this time when central bank injects liquidity it would be met with liquidity trap and risks higher inflation. This phenomenon is also called “push the string”. 

III. Weimarer Republik

A case in point is Weimarer Republik inthe 1920s. The nation suffered hyperinflation, in which a piece of bread might cost up to several billion Deutsche Mark. While central banks printed money very fast the money did not get into the real economy rather than go to buy gold or foreign currency. 

IV. China's economy would stabilize in 1Q2022

We do not expect hyperinflation to happen in China,though. The inflation in consumer side would maintain at relatively low levels in the next 6 months. While producer-side inflation has been above expectation it would see turning point soon. Economy might continue to slow down in 4thquarter. But monetary policy would maintain neutral to easing stance and fiscal policy would play a key role in supporting economy. We expect China’s economy to stabilize in 1Q2022 with infrastructure spending coming up and remain optimistic for stock market. For the long-term China’s economy would be determined by productivity improvement. This mainly comes from technology and innovation,which would support a long bull market.  

V. RMB went strong

A-share and HK stocks rose. RMB went strong against the US dollar and was close to the high point last June. International investors poured money into both A-share and HK market. The US stocks continued to rise as companies’ 3rd earnings beat expectation. 10-year treasury yield rose to 1.65%, the highest from last May.  

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