壹 对Taper 的担忧

      A股近期走势平平，远不及美股和港股走势靓丽。我们认为一个原因是市场对美联储缩减债券规模有所担心。美联储预计将在11月4日议息会议结束后的新闻发布会上宣布缩减债券购买规模，并从12月份开始实行。近期美国国债收益率持续走高，从9月份最低的1.28%上涨到1.65%，短短一个多月的时间上涨了37个基点。美国国债收益率上涨对A股投资人造成一定的压力，但并没有阻断北上资金投资A股的热情。截止10月21日，北上资金本月净流入84.5亿人民币，延续了年初至今每月都净流入的状态。

      贰 对业绩的担忧

      另外一个原因是对业绩的担忧。截至2021年10月20日，A股已披露上市公司预告数量为1103家，其中周期板块表现较好，有色金属、采掘、化工、钢铁行业已披露上市公司2021Q3利润同比增速为191%、115%、222%、156%。而食品饮料、商业贸易、农林牧渔表现欠佳，业绩同比增速分别为-275%、-129%、-249%。由于预披露的公司业绩同比增速或者超过50%，或者低于50%，一些景气行业预披露的公司代表行业最好的业绩，整体行业的业绩增速应没有预披露的业绩高；而景气度较低的行业的业绩可能也比披露的好。市场预期3季报业绩增速将从2季度的高位回落。受上游原材料价格上涨的影响，中游制造业毛利率受到挤压的现象比较普遍。

      叁 担忧需要时间缓解

      我们认为上游价格有可能较长时间保持在高位，周期股的业绩同比增速也会在3季度和4季度保持在较高水平。因此，中游制造业可能毛利率会持续承压。而下游消费行业因受到经济不景气的影响，业绩很可能在低位徘徊。所以，A股目前面临的问题就是经济下行期，高景气的行业恐怕难以维持欣欣向荣，而景气度较低的行业也需要时间实现业绩的反转。这有可能是市场徘徊不前的另一个原因。而这个问题需要时间去解决。

      肆 美股再创新高

      A股和港股下跌。金融和房地产板块走强。高层认为恒大的风险不会外溢，给市场提供了信心。美国上周申请失业救济人数好于预期，标普500连续7天上涨，创出历史新高。因特斯拉业绩超预期，科技股上涨。美股过去20年，通胀和利润率水平是成正比的。有知名策略分析师认为不应该担忧通胀挤压利润率水平。不过如此高的通胀水平没有对利润率水平构成压力可能也是因为流动性非常充裕。

I. concern about taper 

A-share lagged behind HK market and the US stock market after the National Day holidays. One concern might be taper. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce taper on Nov. 4thand execute in December.The US 10-year Treasury Yield rose from 1.28% in September to 1.65%, i.e., up 37 basis points in one month plus. Yet north-bound capital has maintained net inflow in October so far at RMB 8.45 billion. This year north-bound capital maintained net inflow for every month. 

II. Concern about earnings growth 

The second reason might be concerns about 3rdquarter earnings. By October 20th there were 1105 companies in A share that pre-disclosed 3rd quarter earnings. Cyclical sectors performed well. 3rd quarter earnings in non-ferrous metals, mining, petrochemical, and iron and steel rose 191%、115%、222% and 156% year-on-year (yoy) respectively. While food and beverage, commercial trade, farming and fishery performed poorly. Their earnings grew -275%、-129 and -249% yoy. Pre-disclosure rules only require those companies whose earnings grow more than 50% or decline more than 50% to pre-disclose.Hence, the sector earnings growth might not be that good for cyclicals and bad for those saw big earnings decline.  3rd quarter earnings growth rate is expected to slip from the high growth rate in 2nd quarter. And margin pressure is not unusual, making market nervous.

III. SP 500 reached record high

A-share and HK stocks fell.Financials and property sector rallied as supervising agency considered that Evergrande was a separate case and would not cause risk to spread out. The US initial jobless claim last week was better than expectation. SP 500 reached record high. As Tesla earnings came in better than expected tech stocks rallied. A well-known strategist pointed out that over the last 20 years profit margin of SP 500 correlated positively with inflation. Hence, it is no need to worry about high inflation. Yet that the high inflation can be transmitted might be due to abundant liquidity to some extent.

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