壹 食品在消费者价格指数中占比最高

      近期蔬菜价格上涨，有的蔬菜单价已经超过猪肉价格。这会不会对消费者价格指数产生上行压力？在我国消费者价格指数中，食品占比20.9%，是消费者价格指数中占比最高的项目。食品中占比最高的项目是畜肉类，占比5.42%；而其中猪肉占比最高，占消费者价格指数的比例为3.31%。鲜菜是食品项目中占比第二高的，比例为2.48%。

      贰 中美消费者价格指数构成差异

      中国和美国的消费者价格指数构成有较大差异。美国的消费者价格指数中占比最高的是住房价格，占比41.02%，主要指租房价格，其含义跟我国消费者价格指数的居住价格是一致的。其次是交通，占比为16.87%。食品价格占比第三，为15.25%。中美两国消费者价格指数中食品占比差异是经济发展水平所决定的。美国人均可支配收入食品的支出占比不到10%，而我国则接近30%。因此，食品对我国消费者价格指数的影响较大。

      叁 鲜菜上涨的原因

      鲜菜作为食品中第二大权重项，其对消费者价格指数也有较大影响。近期蔬菜价格的上涨一方面是因为原材料价格的上涨传导到了蔬菜种植端，种子和化肥成本上涨增加了种植成本，而油价上涨也增加了运输费。另一方面，个别省份接连遭受水灾，很多叶子菜被雨水泡了烂在地里，造成蔬菜大量减产。今年天气降温也早于往年，造成蔬菜生长缓慢。最后，北方蔬菜退市，也推动了蔬菜价格上涨。蔬菜价格上涨推动消费者价格指数上涨时有发生。

      肆不会对货币政策产生影响

      2020年12月也是因为自然灾害、低温和运输成本增加导致蔬菜价格上涨，使得“白菜价”不再是便宜的代名词。蔬菜价格上涨短期将会推升消费者价格指数，但随着蔬菜供应增加，蔬菜价格就会从高位回落。蔬菜价格真正回到低位恐怕需要到明年2月份，考虑到冬季蔬菜供应少于其他季节，叠加春节之前食品价格均会趋势性上涨。我们认为蔬菜价格上涨也不会对央行的货币政策产生较大影响。一个是因为这是一个短期现象；另外，央行应该更关注核心消费者价格指数，而后者不包括食品价格。核心消费者价格指数与居住成本相关度较大。

      伍 房地产税长期利好股市

      房地产税将会打压投资性需求，推动资金从房地产市场转入股票市场，长期利好股市。美股连涨3周，道指和标普均创出历史新高。标普5003季度业绩预计增长35%。本周大的科技公司包括脸书、谷歌等报告3季报业绩。

I. Vegetable prices have been on a soar recently

Some worry that the rising vegetable prices would cause monetary policy to become stringent. We believe this would not happen. Among China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) foods take the biggest weighting at 20.9%. Meat takes the largest weighting among foods at 5.42% while swine takes the largest weighting at 3.31%. Vegetable takes the second largest weighting among foods at 2.48%. 

II. China and the US CPI weightings are different 

The weighting of China’s CPI is different from that of the US. In the US CPI the largest weighting is residential cost, which mainly refers torental cost. Its weighting is 41.02%. The second largest weighting is transportation costs at 16.87%. Foods take the third largest weighting at 15.25%. The reason of the differences lies in the economic levels. In the US consumer only spends less than 10% of their disposable income on foods compared with close to 30% in China. 

III. Several factors caused vegetable prices to rise 

The vegetable prices increase in China was due to several factors.The first is the rising costs of planting and transportation costs as oil,chemical fertilizer and seeds costs rose with the raw material prices increase.The second is floods in some provinces, which caused vegetables to be flooded and supply shortage. The third one is fast-falling temperature, which made vegetables grow more slowly. The last one is that vegetable supply in the northern part of China came to a close. 

IV. It is not a concern

Rising vegetable prices would push up CPI. But this happens from time to time.The most recent one was last December, when rising transportation costs, low temperature and natural disaster caused vegetable supply shortage. We expect the high vegetable prices to come down with supply increase. But it might maintain at a relatively high level until Feb.2022 as food prices would be on a rising trend before the Spring Festival. China’s monetary policy seems to follow core CPI more closely, which excludes food and energy prices.

V. Property tax would be levied in China

Property tax would push out investment demands for property, which is beneficial for stock markets in the long run. 

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