壹 新股破发

      A股市场近期不断有新股破发。一是科创板和创业板上市的新股估值过高，有些个股定价在几十倍的市盈率，远高于行业平均水平，首日破发也是可以理解的；另一方面，也反应了市场当前的热度不足以及IPO项目对市场资金的分流。今年前三季度共有373家企业登陆A股，逼近去年全年新股数394家，有业内人士称今年新股数有望达到500家，再创新纪录。如果新股破发的现象持续，相信管理层会对IPO节奏进行调整。港股市场一直是全球IPO前几位的市场。如果市场低迷，做承销业务的投行将会与拟上市公司沟通，选择更好的时间窗口进行IPO，这样可以获得更好的定价。相信随着A股市场注册制的不断推进，国内的券商也会帮助上市公司选择较好的时间窗口进行IPO。近期不仅新股破发，基金募集提前结束或失败的消息也频频见诸报端，显示市场的“冷”正在慢慢扩散。

      贰 热门板块

      另一方面，很多热门板块却屡创新高。周一，受到新能源车强劲增长的带动以及国家发布碳中和碳达峰相关文件的消息刺激，新能源和储能板块大幅上涨。9月单月国内新能车销量35.7万辆，同比增长148.8%，环比增长11.4%，渗透率达17.3%，其中新能源乘用车市场渗透率超过19%。2021年1-9月动力电池累计装机量达92GWH，同比增长169.1%。9月单月装机量达15.7GWh，同比增长138.6%，环比增长25%。今年新能源车的增速超出市场预期，A股相关板块也表现靓丽。但其中一些股票的估值在三位数市盈率，利好应已经在股价中。

      叁 行业表现

      市场冷与热的鲜明对照还体现在行业的表现上。年初至今（截止2021年10月25日），A股28个行业中12个上涨，16个下跌。其中涨幅最高的三个板块采掘、电气设备和有色金属分别上涨53.3%、51.7%和43.3%，而跌幅最大的三个板块家用电器、非银金融和传媒分别下跌21.7%、17.7%和17.1%。我们在翻倍股和腰斩股中分析过股价过热后就会回调，而股价跌幅较大后也存在反弹的需求。

      肆 美股新高

      A股上涨而港股下跌。美股再创新高，美国国债收益率大幅走低。

I. IPOs do not perform well 

The IPO debut recently has been lackluster. One reason is that for those to be listed in Chinext and STAR Board they were priced too high. Some of them were issued at 60-70x price-to-earnings ratio, much higher than their sectors’ valuation levels. Another reason is that market seems not as hot as previously. By the end of 3rd quarter there were 373 companies got listed in A-share, which is close to 394 in 2020. It is estimated that 500 companies would be got listed in A-share this year. We deem that supervising agencies might cut the numbers of IPOs if market continues to perform poorly.In HK market underwriting investment banks for IPOs would communicate with companies if market turns negative. This is what an underwriter should do under the registration system. We believe that in the future Chinese brokerages would also do the same thing. By 18th September 22 mutual funds failed to raise enough funds and could not be set up. 

II. Hot sectors

But on the other hand,some hot sectors have notched new highs. Sales volume in new energy vehicles in September reached 357000, up 148.8% year-on-year and 11.4% month-on-month. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached 17.3% and that of new energy passenger cars has reached 19%. Moreover, the central government issued a new document on carbon neutral and carbon emission peak. The new energy sector rallied on Monday on these two pieces of news. Yet some stocks’ valuation is hefty and it might have priced in all of the good news. 

III. Sector performance diverged

The hotness and coolness of A-share is also reflected in sector performance year-to-date. Among the 28 sectors 12 sectors rose while the remaining 16 sectors fell. The top three best-performing sectors are mining, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal, which rose 53.3%,51.7% and 43.3% respectively. While the three worst-performing sectors are home appliance, non-bank financials and media, which fell 21.7%,17.7%and 17.1%. But things might change with time passing by.

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