壹暂时的还是持久的？

      对于通胀是暂时的还是持久的，不同的人有不同的见解。在美国就可以分为赞成派和反对派两大阵营。新债王杰弗瑞·冈拉克认为通胀是持久的，因为居住成本和工资会持续上涨。他预计明年通胀将不会低于4%。这比过去一年5.4%的通胀水平要低一些，但仍高于美联储的通胀平均目标2%。而创新女王凯瑟琳·伍德则认为通胀会在节假日结束后回落。她援引的例子是2008年全球金融危机之后美联储实行了量化宽松。她当时也判断通胀会来，但是并没有。一个原因就是虽然钱放出来了，但是货币流通速度放缓了。这导致实际流通的钱并没有增加。

      贰 货币流通速度持续放缓

      美国M2流通速度在2008年1季度为1.94，那是全球金融危机发生之前，而到2019年底则下降到了1.44。新冠危机之后美联储大幅放水，货币流通速度在2020年2季度下降到了1.1的水平，之后一直维持在这一水平。我国的情况与美国类似。我国货币乘数在2008年全球金融危机之后趋势性走高，从2008年初的3.82上升到2018年年底的5.52，2019年进一步上升到6.13。随着新冠危机的爆发，我国央行也在2020年2季度释放了流动性，货币乘数在2020年7月份上升到7.15，之后在这一水平上下波动至今。货币乘数与流通速度成反比例关系。货币乘数上升意味着流通速度降低，反之亦然。

      叁 科技推动通胀下行

      中美两国货币流通速度下降具体原因比较复杂，对此的很多讨论都没有定论。但杠杆率的提升可以算作一个因素。科技是推动通胀下行的力量，新型支付工具提升了货币流通速度。人工智能的成本以每年40-70%的速度下降，这种惊人的科技力量将推动通胀水平持续走低。对于新债王而言，通胀上升而利率无法及时跟上，则实际利率将维持在负区间。这对债券投资并非好事情。而在凯瑟琳的眼中，任何不能创新的企业都是通缩的来源，是价值陷阱。只有科技进步才能创造价值。如果将工资和居住成本等看成是影响通胀的看得见的力量，那科技就是影响通胀的隐藏的力量。

      肆 美股新高

      A股和港股下跌。美股再创新高。美联储下周将宣布缩减债券购买规模。法国巴黎银行分析师预计在通胀高涨的背景下，美联储明年夏季将会紧急加息，到年底加息四次，每次25个基点。当前美股估值没有反应这一可能性。

I. Transient or lasting? 

The discussions on whether inflation is transient or persisting has been on and on. Different people have different opinions. Jefferey Gundlach, billionaire bond investor, believed that inflation in consumer prices likely will remain elevated through 2021 and stay above 4% through at least 2022 due to rising shelter costs and wages. But Cathie Wood,the famous innovation investor, believed that from her own experience inflation would not come. She thought that inflation would come off in 2008-09 when the Fed started quantitative easing. But she was wrong. Instead, velocity-the rate at which money turns over per year - declined, taking away its inflationary sting.

II. Velocity still is falling. 

Velocity of M2 in the US was 1.94 in 1Q2008 and fell to 1.44 by the end of 2019. As the Federal Reserve printed a lot of money after the COVID-19 crises the velocity of M2 fell to 1.1 in 2Q2020 and maintained at this level from then on. The same happened in China. China’s M2 multiplier was 3.82 at the beginning of 2008 and rose to 5.52 by the end of 2018. It further climbed to 6.13 in 2019. In 2020 the People’s Bank of China released liquidity to deal with the COVID-19 crises. And M2 multiplier rose to 7.15 in July 2020 and has been up and down around this level since then. Velocity and money multiplier are inversely correlated. The rising money multiplier means that velocity of money is becoming smaller and smaller.Some owes the slowdown of money turning over to gearing ratio increase. 

III.Technology pushes inflation down

But technology improvement promotes money turn over faster such as the new payment instruments including Wechat payment and Alipay, etc. Furthermore, the cost of intelligence artificial will decrease at 40-70% per year. This would also push inflation down.If we consider shelter costs and wages etc as the obvious power to influence inflation, then technology is a hided power to have an impact on inflation.

IV. The US stocks reached record levels

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.The US stocks rallied to another record levels boosted by major technology companies’ better earnings. 

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