壹 渗透率达到10%

      产品或服务的渗透率与行业的生命周期紧密相关。在渗透率从0-10%的时候，行业处在初创期。这一阶段行业增速呈现直线式上升。一旦达到10%的渗透率，行业就进入快速成长期。10%常常被视为需求爆发的临界点，英文叫做critical mass。

      贰 新能源汽车

      以新能源汽车为例：从2009年我国发布《汽车产业调整和振兴规划》，正式启动对新能源汽车的补贴，到2015年我国新能源汽车渗透率首次突破1%，用了6年；从2015年1%的渗透率到2019年的4.7%渗透率，用了四年。2020年虽然有疫情的阻碍，但新能源汽车渗透率仍然提升到5.8%。截止2021年9月底，新能源汽车市场渗透率为17.3%，新能源乘用车市场渗透率达到19.5%。也就是说，从5.8%到近20%的渗透率只用了大半年的时间。

      叁 仍将保持快速增长

      有市场参与者预计到2025年新能源汽车渗透率将达到50%，也即行业可以在未来四年内增长2.5倍以上，年复合增速约为37%。虽然和今年的增速不可同日耳语，但也是很快的增速。2020年下半年，中国纯电的乘用车市场开始进入一个爆发期，并呈现与过去不一样的驱动力。2020年之前，中国电动车的销量增长主要是靠运营车辆，包括出租车、网约车等，这些车辆使用电动车可拿到新能源汽车补贴。但2020年补贴退坡以后，个人购车的需求大大幅提升，也即新能源汽车行业的增长驱动力变成了个人消费，这反而给行业发展提供了坚实持久的动力。

      肆 40%的渗透率

      当一个行业的渗透率达到40%后，行业进入成熟期。这一阶段行业增速逐渐变慢，竞争加剧，新进入者抢夺头部企业的市场份额，行业的利润率出现拐点。这一阶段尽管企业的盈利仍然增长，但已开始了戴维斯双杀中的杀估值阶段。当企业盈利开始下滑后，就开始杀盈利阶段。历史上有很多企业在其产品渗透率达到40%之际，股票市值也达到高点，如中移动和诺基亚，都是在全国手机和全球手机渗透率达到40%的时候达到市值高点。根据新能源汽车的增速和渗透率，行业进入戴维斯双杀的时间可能并不遥远。

      伍 全球股市调整

      A股和港股下跌。港股科技指数在连续上涨后三连跌，疑为获利资金了解。煤炭板块跌幅居前，国家拟对煤炭行业征收暴利税。美股从高位滑落。

I. Penetration rate and sector's development stages  

Penetration rate of a product or service is correlated closely with sector development stages. When the penetration rate goes from 0%to 10%, the sector growth is the fastest. This stage is called the initial stage of a sector. 10% is usually called critical mass. After the penetration rate reaches 10% the sector goes into growth stage. 

II. New energy vehicle sector

Take the example of new energy vehicle (NEV) sector. In 2009 China issued the Plan for auto sector adjustment and development and began to subsidize new energy vehicles. By 2015 NEV’s penetration rate reached 1%, meaning that it took six years for penetration rate to increase from 0% to 1%. It took another four years for penetration rate to increase from 1% to 4.7% in 2019. In 2020 penetration rate of NEV reached 5.8%. By September 2021 the penetration rate of NEV reached 17.3% and that of new energy passenger cars reached 19.5%. This implies that it only took a little more than half a year for penetration rate to improve from 5%-plus to nearly 20%. 

III. Fast growth could be maintained 

Some expert in NEV sector predicted that NEV’s penetration rate would reach 50% by 2025,meaning that NEV market would expand by 2.5 times and compound annual growth rate would be around 37%. This is pretty fast. In 2020 when subsidies for NEV went off, Chinese consumers began to buy NEV and are the main driver of the fast growth of NEV sector. 

IV. Development stage

When a sector’s penetration rate reaches 40-50% the sector enters development stage. The sector’s growth rate slows down and sector’s margin becomes thinner due to that the new entrants enhance competition. According to historical experience many technical companies’ market cap reached the top with their products or services’ penetration reaching 40%. A case in point is China Mobile and Nokia, which saw the peak of market cap when China’s and global mobile phone penetration rate reached 40% respectively. It seems that it would not take too much time for NEV’s penetration rate to reach 40%.

V. Stocks corrected

Both A-share and HK stocks fell. The Tech stocks in HK market declined for three days in a row. US stocks also slipped from record levels.

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