上周五A股和港股均大涨,量能有所提升。上周(下同)上证指数、创业板指和科创板指分别上涨0.4%、2.77%和2.06%,成交量与前一周持平。连跌五周后,A股市场终于迎来上涨。A股申万28个行业中17个上涨,涨幅居前的是计算机、医药生物和纺织服装,跌幅居前的是顺周期板块,包括钢铁、有色金属和化工。港股恒生指数、国企指数和科技指数分别下跌2.26%、2.82%和4.93%,12个行业中只有综合行业上涨,跌幅居前的是原材料、科技和可选消费。北上资金净流入141.6亿人民币,较前一周提升63%。南下资金从前一周净流入转为净流出63.3亿港币。
1-2月工业增速强劲。国家统计局公布,1-2月全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额11,140.1亿元,同比(下同)增长1.79倍,比2019年首两个月增长72.1%,两年平均增长31.2%。规模以上工业企业中,国有控股企业实现利润总额3752.2亿元,增长1.82倍;股份制企业实现利润总额7762.5亿元,增长1.69倍;外商及港澳台商投资企业实现利润总额3,145.2亿元,增长2.19倍;私营企业实现利润总额3,316.9亿元,增长1.37倍。规模以上工业企业实现营业收入16.87万亿元,增长45.5%;营业成本13.99万亿元,增长43.5% ;营业收入利润率为6.60%,提高3.15个百分点。前两个月数据因2020年低基数,增速较高。但剥离低基数,总体增速仍非常强劲。
没有免费的午餐。周末传出一家对冲基金因杠杆爆仓被强制平仓导致中概股大幅下跌的消息。投资是在承担一定风险下获取收益的过程。承担的风险低,收益也低;承担的风险高,收益也高。赚快钱也意味着要承担快速亏钱的风险,天下没有免费的午餐。坚持价值投资的好处是能够保住本金,保持参与市场机会的可能。当然,价值投资一般都很难赚到快钱,其真正的魔力是复利,即投资人获取企业年复一年创造的价值的一部分。价值投资最重要的是甄别出好股票并且长期持有,巴菲特的说法是永远不卖。不过,如果股票估值过高,巴菲特也是卖的。
美股上周五大涨。科技、医药和金融股带领股市上涨。拜登总统本周三或周四将会披露总额3-4万亿美金、持续多年的基建计划。
A-share and HK stocks rallied last Friday. Last week A-share finally rose after falling for 5 weeks in a row. Shanghai Composite Index, Chinext Index and STAR 50 rose 0.4%, 2.77% and 2.06% respectively with trading volume in line with the previous week. 16 sectors out of 28 rose with computer, healthcare and textile and clothes leading the market. HK stocks fell with Hang Seng Index, China Enterprises Index and Tech Index falling 2.26%, 2.82% and 4.93% respectively. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 14.2 billion, up 63% over the previous week. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$6.33 billion.
In the first two months industrial sector grew strongly. According to National Statistic Bureau, industrial enterprises above scale made net profit of RMB 1.1 trillion, up 179% year-on-year (yoy, the same below) and 72% higher than the same period in 2019. State-controlled enterprises made net profit of RMB 375.2bn, up 182%. As industrial activities were stalled during Jan and Feb. in 2020 due to pandemic, industrial sector grew on a low base this year. However, even if excluding the low-base effect, the industrial enterprises still delivered strong sales and profit growth.
There is no free lunch in stock market. According to media, because a hedge fund could not cover margin call investment banks dumped a big amount of China-concept stocks last week and caused these stocks’ prices to be halved. Investment is a process to get return based on risk. The higher the risk is, the higher the return could be. The faster the money is earned the higher the risk one needs to take. If one wants to make money fast, he or she must realize that money can be lost very fast too. There is no free lunch in the stock market. The best way to invest is to stick to value investment principles and enjoy compound return, the eighth magic in the world.
The US stocks rallied last Friday. Tech, cyclicals and banks led the market. Biden will reveal US$3-4 trillion infrastructure plan on the coming Wednesday or Thursday.
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