壹 酒价下跌

      周末有报道称某高端白酒终端价格下降，因年初执行的开箱售卖政策可能生变。该高端白酒因收藏者众多，而整箱售卖的白酒比起单瓶酒更易储存和易鉴别真假，因此整箱的单瓶价格比开箱售卖的单瓶价格高300元左右。该公司政策变化之快确实超出预期。但投机资金之前助推该高端白酒价格上涨也是酒价下跌的一个重要原因。

      贰 有些购买不是为了消费

      我们在“茅股”崩盘背后曾经指出过，该高端白酒被购买后一部分并没有进入消费，而是被储存起来了。有一部分可能是真的存起来作日后消费之用，但还有一些是通过加杠杆购买的，购买者期望日后酒价上涨从而获取较高收益。如果酒价下跌，则这些加杠杆的资金就不得不忍痛抛售，毕竟资金是有成本的。

      叁 蝴蝶效应

      而推动酒价下跌的原因可能与该高端白酒的基本面并无太大关系。据报道该白酒收藏者中的一些地产开发商因资金紧张而抛出大量存货，从而推动百酒价格下降。所以，看上去似乎是因为一个行业出问题而波及了另一个不相干的行业。但经济中各个行业都有千丝万缕的联系，蝴蝶效应其实在经济中并不少见。在经济上行期，我们能看到一荣俱荣；经济下行期，就是一损俱损。

      肆 总体市场没有泡沫

      投资人需特别警惕那些有泡沫的领域，这些领域通常是人群聚集的地方，在经济下行期也易发生风险事件。A股市场总体估值较低，不存在泡沫。上证指数在2021年10月29日（下同）的静态市盈率为13.7倍，处于历史上18.4%的分位；深成指静态市盈率为26.9倍，处在历史上58.4%的分位。深成指估值相对较高主要是因为创业板估值较高。创业板指静态市盈率为63.3倍，处在历史上80.2%的分位。从估值角度看，创业板指可能存在一定的风险。创业板指前十大权重股中部分个股3季度业绩低于预期，如这些个股基本面持续不佳可能会拖累板块表现。

      伍 美股上周表现佳

      上周全球16个主要国家和地区指数上周涨跌各一半。其中恒生指数下跌2.9%，跌幅最大；上证指数和深成指分别下跌0.3%和1%。3季报部分公司业绩不及预期，导致A股和港股调整。纳斯达克指数、法国指数和标普500分别上涨2.7%、1.4%和1.3%，表现最佳。美股业绩超预期，推动股市上行。10月中国官方制造业采购经理人指数继续下滑至49.2，表明经济仍在下行中。

I. Liquor prices fell 

It was reported that prices of a high-end liquor went down sharply lately, which was partly due to that its company allowed the liquor to be sold inboxes. From the beginning of 2021 till now this company did not allow the liquor to be sold in boxes hoping to curb its prices. But due to that the liquor is more easily stored, sold and certified in boxes, a bottle of liquor in boxes costs RMB 300 more than those sold in bottles. 

II. Speculation is playing a key role

As we analyzed in “The crash of those high-flying stocks “茅股”崩盘背后” this high-end liquor is not only bought for consumption but also for speculation. Some investors even leveraged to buy the liquor in hope for the prices to  go up further and make money. With the prices down these investors likely were forced to sell the liquor as their leverages became a burden. 

III. Butterfly effect 

It was also reported that some property developers sold the liquor as they were faced with liquidity crunch. While this seems to be a butterfly effect it is not unusual in economy as all things link together. One sector rises with other sectors when economy goes up and vice versa when economy goes down. 

IV. No bubbles in broad market 

At this moment investors should take some caution in those areas with bubbles. There seems to be no bubbles in the broad market: Shanghai Composite Index is valued at trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTWPE) of 13.5x and at 18.3% percentile in about 30 years. But Chinext Board is valued at 63.3x at 80.2% percentile in history, which looks risky. Some top-10 weighting stocks in Chinext Board missed on 3Q2021 earnings. If their fundamentals deteriorate further then Chinext Board might suffer Davis double-killing.

V. The US stocks performed the best  

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week due to the weaker-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021.  Hang Seng Index in HK market fell 2.9% and was the worst-performing index among global 16 major stock indexes. The US stocks led the global markets due to better-than-expected earnings in 3Q2021. China official Purchasing Managers’ Index in October came in at 49.2%, reflecting that China’s economy is still sliding. 

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