壹 涨价传导到消费终端

      今年投资人听到最多的一个词恐怕就是“涨价”。水泥企业涨价之后化工企业涨价，涨价的理由都是原材料上涨。进入四季度，我们看到价格压力终于传导到消费品，消费品企业开始涨价，从酱油到调味料，从啤酒到食用油。

      贰价格压力传导需要时间

      这背后对应的月度同比涨幅处在历史高点的生产者价格指数向消费者价格指数的传递。但是由于猪肉价格仍在相对低位，消费者价格指数的同比涨幅仍然较低。我国9月份消费者价格指数同比上涨0.7%，为4月以来的最低同比涨幅，主要是受到猪肉价格下跌的拖累。而生产者价格指数同比涨幅为10.7%，为1996年有数据以来的最高值。价格上涨通常需要半年时间从生产端转到终端消费者。因此，年初以来的原材料价格上涨现在传导到了消费品企业。

      叁 涨价不一定带来净利润的提高

      涨价对企业不一定是有益的。如果企业所处行业的竞争格局比较好，涨价通常不会对产品的销量产生负面影响。因此，涨价就会增加企业的净利润。而如果企业所处的竞争格局较差，则涨价通常会导致销量下降，导致企业得不偿失。曾经有一家卫生用品生产企业，在纸浆价格大幅上涨后提高卫生纸价格。但是卫生纸这种产品同质性较高，品牌效应较低，因此涨价导致其产品销量的下降。

      肆 必需消费品涨价通常比较成功

      必需消费品通常提价会产生积极的效果，主要原因是这些产品的品牌力较强，消费者也不会在意价格的小幅提升。而且这些企业涨价的形式也是多种多样的，可以通过换包装（如从大包装换到小包装）或者开发出新产品等方式变相提高产品价格。对于客户是企业的生产企业，他们的产品价格通常随着原材料价格的变动而变动。因此，对于这些企业而言，涨价是有周期的。但对必需消费品企业而言，涨价通常能够持久。这背后主要是由于随着个人可支配收入的提高，消费者寻求更有品质的生活。

      伍 美国公司涨价能力更强

      A股和港股下跌。A股28个行业中6个上涨，22个下跌。其中休闲服务、钢铁和采掘跌幅居前。而国防军工、农林牧渔和汽车涨幅居前。港股连续6天下跌。疫情加剧增加了投资人对中国4季度经济增长的担忧，同时某地产商爆出债务问题也打击了投资者的风险偏好。但A股总体市场没有泡沫，下行空间有限。3季报显示美国上市公司基本都能够传导原材料上涨的压力，业绩超预期。美股再创新高。

I. Price increase in consumer sectors 

The most frequently mentioned words in 2021 should be price increase. Price increase has happened in various sectors. Before 4Q2021 price increase happened in mid-stream sectors such as petrochemical sector and cement sector etc. Now when it comes to the 4th quarter price increase happened in consumption sectors such as soy sauce, beer, etc. 

II. It takes time for price increase to be transmitted 

The reason is that Producer’s Price Index rose 10.7% year-on-year (yoy) in October, the fastest increase from 1996 when the data began to be released. Consumer’s Price Index rose 0.7% yoy in October due to the continuously falling swine prices. It usually takes half a year or 9 months for the price increase to be transmitted from producers' side to consumers' side. As raw material prices began to increase at the beginning of this year now the price increase has transmitted to consumers products. 

III. Results might differ

The results of products’ price differ from companies. Those companies in a relatively good competitive landscape would enjoy price increase as their products’ sales volume would not be hurt by price increase. For those companies that in very competitive sectors products’ price increase would hurt sales volume. As a result companies would be faced with less profit after products’ price increase. This happened to a well-known hygiene products producer more than 10 years ago. The company raised its toilet paper prices pressured by high-flying paper pulpprices. But toilet paper products do not differ too much from one brand to another. And the price increase pushed consumers to buy other brands at lower prices.

IV. Consumer stables companies usually enjoy price increase 

In general consumer stables can enjoy price increase due to their strong brand names. The rising disposable income of consumers make them look for better quality of life and support price increases of stables.

V. The US companies can transmit raw material prices pressure well 

Both A-share and HK stocks fell.Market is concerned about the economy prospects and cyclical fell sharply. But A-share’s valuation in general has no bubbles, which means that the broad market does not have much room to fall. The US stocks reached another record high boosted by better-than-expected 3Q earnings.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。