壹 长期利率下降

      著名经济学家辜鸿铭在《大衰退—宏观经济学的圣杯》中指出：企业陷入资产负债表衰退时，需用资金还债。长此以往，企业对债务产生厌恶，会患上“债务抵触综合证”。这意味着即使企业已经偿还了债务，也不会去借债。当企业用原本还债的资金进行投资时，需求回升了，但是因为借债需求不足，所以利率下降。这就造成名义国内生产总值的增速超过长期利率。

      贰 下降趋势持续很长时间

      美国曾经在1929年大萧条之后和2000年互联网泡沫破灭后出现过这种现象。而一旦国内生产总值的增速超过长期利率，则需要很长的时间才能逆转这种关系。以美国1929年经济大萧条为例，直到1959年长期利率才回到大萧条之前的水平，也就是花费了整整30年的时间。日本在上世纪90年代的经济衰退之后，也面临长期利率持续低迷的状况。

      叁 量宽并不是好对策

      辜鸿铭指出当经济面临资产负债表衰退时，采用单纯的量化宽松政策是错误的应对方法。他举例子说明：如果一个病人服药病没好，就把药量增加10倍，那病也不会好。从日本的情况看，无论是量化宽松1、2还是安倍的三支箭都没有给经济带来实质的改善。日本经济增速持续处在低位，长期利率也持续下行，30年国债收益率近几年已经下降到1以下，处在历史最低水平。辜鸿铭认为应对资产负债表衰退应采用积极的财政政策，亦即当企业缩小债务规模的同时，政府必需扩大债务规模。这其实和达利奥所说的宽松去杠杆是一致的。

      肆 我国经济增速仍会相对较高

      当前，我国房地产企业类似资产负债表衰退：一方面偿还债务，一方面对土地拍卖不积极。从日本和美国的经历可推断，我国长期利率可能会就此下行，且下行较长时间。但中国经济和美日相比具有较强的韧性，因此经济增速仍然能够保持在相对较高的水平。同时，我国在货币政策方面一直非常克制，而是在财政政策方面发力。这种应对措施有助于企业修复资产负债表。

      伍 上周周期领跌

      A股和港股上周继续下跌，在全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中表现落后。休闲服务、钢铁、采掘和化工跌幅居前。美政府推出1万亿美金的基建刺激计划，10年期美国国债收益率下行。10月非农就业数据超预期，美股连续7个交易日上涨。

I. Long-term interest rate goes down 

In his famous book “The Holy Grail of Macroeconomic Lessons from Japan Great Recession” Richard Koo pointed out that when enterprises are in balance sheet recession, they would use all of their free money to pay back debt and would become reluctant to borrow money in the long run. Once enterprises pay back debt, they would use the free money to invest and GDP would go up with demand coming back. But long-term interest rate would come down as demand for loans would still be maintained at low levels. 

II. The down trend would go for a long time 

As a result, GDP growth rate would be higher than long-term interest rate. This happened in the US in the Great Depression in 1929 and internet bubbles in 2000. Take the example of the Great Depression long-term interest rate did not come back to pre-depression levels until 1959, i.e., it took 30 years to reverse the down trend of interest rate. Japan was also faced with low interest rate from the depression in the 1990s. 

III. Fiscal policy is the right way

Richard considered active fiscal policy as the right way to deal with balance sheet recession rather than quantitative easing. What happened in Japan illustrated that whether quantitative easing one, two or the three arrows of Abe did not improve economy substantially. Japan’s economy has been at low growth rate for years. So is long-term interest rate.

IV. A different recession

China’s property sector is at similar situation of balance sheet recession. While long-term interest rate would go down China’s GDP growth rate would be at relatively high-levels compared with the developed nations. Moreover, China adopts active fiscal policy to stimulate economy, which as mentioned above is the right way to help businesses to repair their balance sheets and stimulate demand.

V. Cyclical sectors fell the most

Both A-share and HK stocks fell last week and lagged behind the sixteen global major indexes. The cyclical sectors fell the most while fishery and farming,electronics and telecommunication sector rose the most. The US infrastructure bill valued at US$ 1 trillion passed in the congress and the 10-year treasury yield came down. The non-farm payroll data in October came in better than expected. The US stocks rose for 7 trading days in a row.  

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