壹 股市泡沫危害更大

      资产泡沫在历史上从不曾缺席。欧洲早期的三大泡沫--英国南海公司泡沫、法国密西西比股市泡沫和荷兰郁金香泡沫以及2000年互联网泡沫等都在历史上产生过深远的影响。相对而言，商品泡沫中受影响的投资人范围较小，其对经济冲击的程度较小；而股市泡沫通常涉及的人群较广，价值毁灭的程度更深更广，一般来说股市泡沫破灭通常伴随着经济危机的发生。

      贰 郁金香泡沫

      以欧洲早期三大泡沫为例，荷兰的郁金香热是最早的非理性资产泡沫实例之一。在1635年之前，郁金香球茎的价格已经持续上涨了很多年。1635到1636年，荷兰郁金香合同上涨幅度是5900%。1637年5月暴跌99%。和泡沫通常的情况一样，郁金香狂热吞噬了荷兰广泛的人群。在鼎盛时期，一些郁金香球茎的价格一度超过了一套豪华住宅的价格。

      叁 南海公司泡沫

      南海公司成立于1711年，英国政府承诺其垄断与南美西班牙殖民地的所有贸易。投资者预计东印度公司的成功会重演，抢购南海公司的股票。随着董事会们在南海（现在的南美）大肆宣扬难以想象的财富，公司的股票在1720年上半年上涨了约8倍，从1月的128镑上涨至6月的1050镑。随后几个月暴跌，引发了一场严重的经济危机。

      肆 密西西比股市泡沫

      而法国密西西比股市泡沫是最具现代特点的泡沫。这个泡沫的始作俑者是约翰·劳。他认为在就业不足的情况下，增加货币供给可以在不提高物价水平的前提下增加就业机会并增加国民产出。一旦产出增加之后，对货币的需求也会相应跟上来。在实现了充分就业之后，货币扩张能够吸引外部资源，进一步增加产出。约翰劳将其理论付诸实践，成功地将其所拥有的印度公司的股票成为法国货币发行的抵押品。但是，大量货币发行导致了严重的通货膨胀，而印度公司的股票价格也随之暴跌。泡沫的历史再次印证了黑格尔所说：人类从历史中得到的唯一教训就是从不曾从历史中学到任何教训。

      伍 港股续跌，美股续涨

      A股上涨，港股下跌。周期股表现领先。受到辉瑞新冠特效药消息影响，航空股、博彩股表现出色，而医药股表现低迷。中国人民银行推出利率为1.75%额度估计在1万亿人民币的碳减排支持工具，有利于提高市场总体流动性。美股受到1万亿美金基建计划的消息刺激继续上涨，卡特彼勒、约翰迪尔等基建股表现领先。

I. Stock bubbles are more dangerous 

Asset bubbles happened from time to time in history. Some asset bubbles are very famous such as the three bubbles in earlier Europe and the internet bubbles in 2000. Less people are affected in commodity bubbles than in stock bubbles. The latter usually would evolve into economic crises. 

II. Tulip bulb bubble

Take the example of the three bubbles in earlier Europe. The tulip bulb bubble is the earliest one. The prices of tulip bulb rose for many years before 1635. But the contract of tulip bulb rallied 5900% from 1635 to 1636. But in May 1637 it fell 99%. The mania of tulip bulb was so out of rage that at one time a tulip bulb cost a mansion. 

III. The British South Sea Company 

The British South Sea Company was set up in 1711 and got monopoly of the British trade with South America. Investors thought that this company would replicate the success of East India Company and poured their money into this company’s stock. The stock rose 8 times in 1H1720 but fell sharply in 2H1720. This caused an economic crisis in the UK. 

IV. Mississippi Bubble

The France Mississippi Stock Bubble happened due to John Law. He considered that increasing money supply would improve employment without causing inflation when economy was in subemployment. And when employment improves output would increase and so do demand for money  supply. When economy is in full employment investment would come back and output would increase further. He then succeeded in issuing money in France on the base of his company’s stock. But contrary to Law’s theory the massive moneysupply caused serious inflation. His company’s stock price fell sharply. The bubbles in history tell us a simple lesson: the only lesson that human learned from history is that they never learn any lessons.

V. The US stocks continued to rise 

A-share rose while HK stocks fell. Non-ferrous metal rose the most while medicine stocks fell the most due to the COVID-19 drug invented by Pfizer. The People’s Bank of China would issue carbon-emission support facility at 1.75% with an estimated amount of RMB 1 trillion. The US stocks continued to rise due to the infrastructure bill passed over the weekend. Infrastructure stocks rallied such as John Deere and Caterpillar.

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