壹 房地产政策有所放松

      A股和港股周三都探底回升，A股收盘微跌，港股收盘恒生指数上涨0.74%。周三戏剧性的V型反转主要是由于房地产板块的崛起。11月9日，中国银行间市场交易商协会举行房企代表座谈会，部分房企有计划近期在银行间市场注册发行债务融资工具。这意味着房地产企业境内发债的相关政策会有所松动，近期将会有房企在公开市场发债融资，同时，银行等机构投资者也会通过债券投资等方式重新为房企“输血”，防止房企资金链进一步恶化。盘后有一则有关按揭额度放松的消息流传，但随后被银行方面否认。

      贰 通胀超预期

      周三北上资金净流出118亿人民币，为7月26日以来单日净流出最大金额。7月26日当日北上净流出128亿人民币。北上资金为什么在时隔近4个月后又大幅流出呢？可能是与10月份的生产者价格指数的同比涨幅有关。10月生产者价格指数同比上涨13.5%，为历史最高水平。但10月以来，随着国家对煤炭价格的不断调控，上游资源类产品价格持续下跌。我们认为10月份PPI同比涨幅很可能就是高点。因此，外资的净流出很可能是膝跳反射，不具有持续性。

      叁 流动性边际改善

      周三收盘发布的10月份社融和信贷数据显示流动性边际改善。10月社融增量比去年同期多1970亿元，扭转了过去三个月同比下滑的趋势；同时新增信贷也同比多增1364亿元，逆转过去两个月的下滑趋势。因为专项债发行和居民中长期贷款的改善，这应归功于730 政治局会议之后一系列的纠偏动作。A股从9月触及高点以来持续下跌2个月。未来A股如何走应取决于经济下滑程度和政策出台力度二者的合力。

      肆 美国通胀超预期

      美国10月消费者价格指数（CPI）创出30年新高。10月CPI同比上涨6.2%，超市场预期。扣除能源和食品的核心CPI上涨6.2%，为1990年11月以来的最高月度涨幅。燃料油、能源、二手车价格都大幅上涨，推动了消费者价格指数的上涨。超预期的通胀意味着美联储加息的步伐可能要快于市场预期。目前市场预计明年将会有两次加息，有44%的概率加息三次。高于预期的CPI促使美股回落，科技股全面下跌，黄金价格上涨，国债收益率上涨。同时，上周美国申请失业救济人数也降低到了疫情发生以来的最低水平，显示美国经济持续在复苏。

I.Property sector rallied 

Both A-share and HK stocks made a U-turn on Wednesday. At closing A-share fell just slightly from Tuesday’s closing prices while Hang Seng Index rose 0.74%. The property sector’s rally contributed to the U-turn. A couple of good news pushed the sector higher. National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors convened a meeting of property developers on November 9th, 2021. It was reported that some national property developers owned by central government were allowed to issue debt in interbank market and banks would buy bonds of property developers again. These measures would prevent property developers from capital strain rupture. 

II. Liquidity was easing to some extent

Moreover, the aggregate social financing (ASF) in October showed that liquidity was easing to some extent. ASF in October increased by RMB 197 billion year-on-year (yoy), reversing the down trend over the last three months. Also new loans increased by RMB 136.4 billion, reversing the down trend over the last two months. The liquidity expansion should be owed to the increased special project debt issuance and the residents’ medium- to long-term loans increase. These changes came after July 30th Politburo meeting. 

III. PPI grew higher than expected

North-bound capital saw the largest daily outflow at RMB11.8 billion, only lower than that on July 26th which saw net outflow of RMB 12.8 billion. The outflow of north-bound capital was triggered by October Producer price index (PPI),which rose 13.5% year-on-year and was the largest monthly increase in history. We believe that PPI should peak in October as government has taken various measures to control coal prices since October. The coal prices halved from its peak level. As such north-bound capital would come back later. A-share has corrected for two months since mid-September. How it performs in the future would be determined by policies and economic trend.

IV. The inflation in the US 

The US October consumer price index rose 6.2% yoy. It was the largest monthly increase yoy from Nov. 1990. The US stocks fell and tech stocks crashed. Gold prices rallied and treasury yield rose as well. Currently market has priced in two interest rate hikes in 2022.

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