壹 房地产板块大幅上涨

      受政策利好刺激，房地产板块周四上涨5.85%，涨幅在A股28个行业中第一，其次是建筑材料和非银金融，分别上涨5.42%和3.26%。房地产和建筑材料板块很多公司都上涨了10厘米或者20厘米。

      贰 政策可能不尽如预期

      市场在欢呼房地产政策放松，但盘后一个关于某市放松房地产限购的传闻被证伪。同时，辽宁省住房城乡建设厅近日会同相关部门联合印发《辽宁省持续整治规范房地产市场秩序行动方案》，重点整治未依法依规取得土地即开工建设，未按期动工或中止开发建设导致住宅项目用地构成闲置土地，房屋存在渗漏、开裂、空鼓等突出质量问题，未按房屋买卖合同约定如期交付，实际交付房屋与样板间或销售宣传资料严重不一致等行为。这说明地方政府对房地产企业仍然采取比较严厉的监管政策，也说明政策并不如市场期望的那样宽松。

      叁 估值会提升

      我们判断当前政策力度仅是让房地产企业能够活下去，离全面宽松可能还有很长的一段路要走。同时，当前放松政策并不会对房地产企业的基本面产生立竿见影的效果。因为现金流紧张，年底房地产企业不会积极参加土地拍卖。另外，房地产企业的销售和新开工等数据在今年4季度和明年1季度也会面临一定的挑战，很可能会同比持续负增长。市场前期因政策等因素对房地产及相关板块如建材家居等极其悲观，导致这些板块的估值回落到比较低的水平。我们认为宽松政策有助于房地产及相关板块估值的提升，随后板块应等待业绩底的确认。

      肆 双十一销售情况良好

      阿里巴巴发布消息称从11月1日到11日0时45分，已有382个品牌在天猫双11的成交额超过1亿元。京东也在推特上表示，从10月31日晚到11月11日，双十一的销售额达到人民币3111亿元。因为国家对互联网企业的整治，今年双十一没有大规模的宣传活动。同时，消费者也比较理性，而有些商品可能平时购买更划算。网购已成为中国消费者一个重要的购物渠道，有没有双十一消费者都会在网上买东西。

      伍 美国通胀可能已到顶点

      周三美股科技股反弹。美国10月消费者价格指数涨幅超预期，但可能是顶点。作为消费者价格指数的领先指标，干散货运价指数在今年10月7日达到5650的十年多的历史高点后，持续下跌。目前已下跌50%，达到6月以来的低点。

I. Property sector rallied 

A-share rallied on Thursday boosted by easing policies targeted property sector. Property sector rose 5.82%, the best-performing sector in A-share. Building material and non-bank financials were the second and third best-performing sector. Each rose 5.42% and 3.82% respectively. 

II. Policies might not be that favorite 

While market sentiment was boosted by policy, the news that some city loosened property purchasing policy proved to be a fake one. Moreover, Housing and Urban-rural Development Office of Liaoning Province issued “The action plan to continue the comprehensive improvement of housing markets in Liaoning Province” on Wednesday with an aim to punish those property developers that do not buy lands legally, do not build houses as regulated, and whose houses built have quality issues etc. This shows that local governments still regulate property developers strictly. 

III. Valuation would improve 

Nevertheless, the liquidity easing from central government would help improve the valuation levels of property developers and those related sectors such as building material sector etc.These sectors have suffered serious valuation contraction over the last couple of months due to regulation from both central and local governments. But the fundamentals of the property sector would still be faced with challenges in 4Q2021 and 1Q2022. The sales volume and new projects might decline year-on-year. Also property developers are not expected to buy land actively in the coming land auction due to their capital shortage and cash flow issues. It takes time for property developers to see their earnings bottom out.

IV. The inflation in the US might peak

Both A-share and HK stocks rose. The US tech stocks rebounded. Some analysts believed that the final two months of 2021 could see inflation ease as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has declined by 50% from its October peak and recently hit its lowest level since June, tracking a decline in global shipping rates. The US consumer price follows BDI closely.  

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