壹 A股和港股边际企稳

      上周因为10月社融数据呈现企稳迹象、央行推出碳减排贷款以及政府对房地产行业的政策有放松迹象，A股和港股上涨。同时周末传出中美关系有进一步改善的迹象和外资在3季度增持中概股的消息。从11月到明年1月份，A股处于业绩真空期。根据以往经验，A股在经历了近两个月的调整之后很有可能进入冬季躁动期。我们认为从情绪面上看，A股确实已经到了一个相对低点，叠加政策面的刺激，对年底前的走势可以乐观一些。

      贰 广义货币增速和社融企稳

      从货币供应量的角度看，10月份的社融存量同比增速保持在9月份的水平为10%，M2的同比增速为8.7%，高于9月份的9.3%，表明信用扩张应该已经开始。这也可以从居民购房贷款审批加快以及专项债发行提速等消息中得到印证。

      叁 狭义货币增速走弱

      我们判断社融和M2的增速可能会保持稳定向上，但M1的增速很可能会继续走弱。10月份M1同比增速为2.8%，为2020年2月以来的最低水平。从2010年至今11年间，M1同比增速只在2014年1月、2018年10月到2019年2月、2020年4月低于当前水平，M1同比增速在这四个时间段分别为1.2%、0.4-2.7%和0%。M1同比增速在2020年11月、12月和2021年1月份分别为10%、8.6%和14.7%，处在较高水平。因此，我们判断未来三个月M1的同比增速还会下行，并很有可能在2022年1月份也接近0%。彼时M1同比增速见到最低点。

      肆 股市低点可期

      对股市而言，M1同比增速达到最低点通常会预示股市企稳或者开始反弹。历史上看，M1同比增速与上证指数低点基本重合或者领先几个月的时间。据此判断，上证指数在明年年初或1季度见底的概率较大。投资人如果想参与当前的反弹，我们认为还是寻找估值和基本面匹配的行业，如大金融、地产相关产业链等。成长股中也有很多业绩增速较高且估值较低的品种，需要自下而上进行挖掘。

      伍 上周A股和港股领涨全球

      受到政策利好因素刺激，A股和港股上周表现较好。而俄罗斯和美国三大指数表现落后。本周北京证券交易所正式开始交易。因北京证券交易所上市公司的估值较科创板和创业板上市公司的估值水平都低，市场对北交所开业后的公司股价表现有一定的期待。

I. Stocks rallied due to favorite policies  

Both A-share and HK stocks rallied last week due to that government loosened policy on property sector and that the People’s Bank of China promoted carbon emission loans. Over the weekend it was reported that Sino-US relationship has the possibility of further improvement and that international investors kept buying Chinese big internet giants. Both A-share and HK stocks could continue to rise given the positive policy environment and news catalysts. Yet based on history A-share might still have room to fall after the rally. 

II. ASF and M2 growth rate has reached bottom

In October the Aggregate Social Financing (ASF) rose 10% year-on-year (yoy), which was line with the growth rate in September. This signals that ASF growth rate might have reached bottom.The broad money M2 grew 8.7% yoy in October, which was higher than that in September. This could mean that M2 has bottomed out as well. 

III. M1 growth rate might fall further 

However, the narrow money M1 only grew 2.8% yoy in October. From 2010 there were three times when M1 yoy growth rate was lower than October 2021, which was Jan. 2014, from October 2018 to Feb.2019, and April 2020. M1 grew 10%, 8.6% and 14.7% yoy in Nov. 2020, Dec.2020 and Jan. 2021. Given the high base over these three months, we judge that the yoy growth rate of M1 might not reach the lowest point until Jan. 2022. The low growth point of M1 usually coincides with the low point of Shanghai Composite Index or lead by a couple of months. As such the low of A-share could be seen in 1Q2022. 

IV. Low-valued stocks and growth stocks are good choices

If investors want to participated in the rebound of stocks low-valued stocks such as financials and property etc could be good choices. There are also growth stocks with reasonable valuation which require bottom-up analysis.

V. Stocks in BSE could perform well

HK stocks and A-share led the global stock markets last week.Russia index along with the three major indexes in the US performed worst. Beijing Stock Exchange (BSE) will open on Monday this week. As stocks are valued at a discount in BSE versus those listed in STAR Board and Chinext Board market expects stocks in BSE to perform well.   

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