壹 周一A股和港股调整

      周一A股和港股并没有延续上周的强劲走势双双调整。A股创业板跌幅居前，有可能是受到北京证券交易所开市的影响。房地产板块也在上周大幅上涨后调整，A股和港股房地产板块分别下跌0.9%和0.8%。但是，A股与房地产相关的建材、家电和家居板块均延续上涨态势，这些板块在很大程度上与存量地产带来的更新需求有关。受到房地产板块走势拖累，这些板块的估值也达到较低水平。

      贰 十月经济数据喜忧参半

      10月份经济数据显示工业生产和消费均超市场预期。10月份社会消费品零售总额数据同比增长4.9%，与2020年两年平均增速为4.6%，高于市场预期。但4.6%的同比增速仍是1995年有数据以来的最低水平。工业增加值同比增速为3.5%，与2020年两年平均为5.2%，仍处在历史较低水平。投资方面，基建投资增速同比转正，但是因缺乏优质基建项目，对未来基建投资增速的回升市场没有很高的预期。1-10月房地产开发投资同比增长7.2%，较1-9月份增速8.8%回落。考虑到目前房企的资金紧张状况，预计未来半年到一年房地产开发投资有可能会持续回落，对经济也会造成拖累。制造业投资向好，1-10月份制造业投资同比增长14.2%，两年平均为4.45%，恢复到2019年3月的水平。综上，10月的经济数据有喜有忧。但是，工业增加值、消费及制造业投资超预期能否持续到年底可能存疑。

      叁 刺激政策有可能出台

      考虑到未来房地产市场仍有下行压力，政府可能会考虑出台政策措施，从而保持经济增长的稳定性。有可能受益于政策刺激的板块包括消费、制造业投资相关板块等。

      肆 标普500每股收益与中国GDP的相关性为90%

      根据美国银行策略分析师，中国占标普500上市公司收入比例平均为5%，但在有些上市公司可能会高达60%。中国中产阶级的人口超过美国总人口。对美国公司而言，中国市场空间巨大。同时，这些公司利用中国的低制造成本取得了较快的盈利增速。过去30年，标普500上市公司利润率扩张的80%来自于全球化。当前中国经济放缓并没有完全反应到美股的估值上。来自中国的销售收入占比排名的前50家标普500公司，其当前估值高于历史平均估值一个标准差，因为这些公司的盈利增速要快于其他美国的跨国公司以及本土公司。

I. Both A-share and HK stocks corrected on Monday

Chinext Board fell the most, likely due to the opening of Beijing Stock Exchange. Property sector fell 0.9% and 0.8% respectively in A-share and HK market respectively after last week rally.But construction material, home appliance and furniture sector rose. These sectors are correlated with existing homes and their valuation has been pressed to very low levels due to market concern on property sector. 

II. The October economic data came in mixed 

Industrial value-added and retail sales were above expectation but still at low levels in history. Industrial value-added grew 3.5% year-on-year(yoy) in October. Combined 2020 and 2021 industrial value-added grew 5.2% yoy,which is still at a relatively low level in history. Retail sales grew 4.9% yoy. Combined 2020 and 2021 retail sales grew 4.6% yoy, which is the lowest level from 1995 when the data began to be released. Manufacturing investment grew 14.2% from January to October 2021. Combined 2020 and 2021 manufacturing investment grew 4.45% yoy, which was the level in March 2019. Property investment grew 7.2% from January to October 2021, down from 8.8% in September. 

III. There might be stimulus measures 

Given the capital constrains of property developers, property investment might see declining growth rate in the next 6-12 months. We judge that government would bring up with more stimulus measures, given the down pressure due to the property sector’s slowdown. Consumption and manufacturing should benefit from these policies.

IV. The US stocks correlate with China economy 

China accounts for an average of 5% of SP 500 companies’ sales and more than 60% for some. According to Bank of America the correlation between SP 500 earnings per share and China economy is 90%. Also more than 80% of margin expansion for the SP500 is due to globalization over the last 30 years. Currently those companies ranked at the top 50 based on their revenue from China are valued at one standard deviation higher than their historical average and also higher than other multinationals and domestic companies in the US.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。