壹美元上涨

      近期美元和人民币同步上涨引起很多投资者的关注。截止11月16日，美元指数上涨到95以上，创下2020年7月以来的新高。年初至今，美元指数上涨6.2%。美元上涨主要是受到加息预期的推动。当前市场期待明年7月份美联储第一次加息。回顾2013年的第一次缩减债券规模，美元指数也是在加息预期升温后开始直线上涨。具体请参见这次也许不一样。

      贰 欧洲和日本量化宽松政策持续

      此次美元指数上涨与欧元和日元走弱也有一定关系。不同于美联储回收流动性的举措，欧央行和日本央行都表示将会持续支持经济，量化宽松无止境。欧央行早前更是提到了2011年的欧债危机中所犯的提早收回支持经济的错误，表示绝不会再次犯下相同的错误。日本央行总裁黑田东彦强调，央行已准备好维持大规模的刺激措施。自去年疫情以来，日本央行便开足马力买入日本股市，推动股指一路上行，日经225指数最大涨幅已超过88%。11月12日，日经新闻报道，日本政府计划实施规模超40万亿日元（约合人民币2.24万亿元）的新一轮经济刺激计划，这一规模接近日本2020年4月创纪录的新冠援助方案。

      叁 与经济复苏进程有关

      在2008年全球金融危机之后，美、欧、日三个发达经济体的经济复苏进程就以美国最快，日本次之，而欧洲最慢。此次新冠危机，从三个经济体目前的情况看，仍然是美国表现最佳。美元指数中欧元和日元占比是最大的两个货币，分别为57.6% 和13.6%。鉴于欧洲和日本持续的宽松政策和相对缓慢的经济复苏进程，未来欧元和日元承压而美元走强是大概率事件。

      肆 人民币走强

      近期，人民币兑美元汇率持续上涨，达到6.38，为2021年6月以来的最高水平。人民币汇率上涨应与10月份的经济数据表现超预期有关，具体请参见如果经济增速放缓...。同时，近期中美关系不断出现改善信号，外资对中国资产的热情重新点燃。这也是人民币汇率走强的原因之一。

      伍 喝酒吃药行情

      A股继续调整，港股上涨。医药和消费板块表现较好，喝酒吃药行情再现。而周期行业和前期热门板块跌幅较大。北京交易所股票在经历周一的大幅上涨后，周二大多调整。港股连续6个交易日上涨，前期备受打击的医药、科技和教育板块涨幅领先。美国10月零售数据超预期，显示尽管通胀水平很高，但消费者依然在消费。美股上涨。

I. The US dollar was strong

Recently both RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index rallied. The US dollar index was above 95 on Tuesday and rose 6.2% year-to-date. The recent rally of the US dollar index was mainly driven by the expectation of interest rate lift in 2022. Currently market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in July 2022. In the first taper in 2013 and 2014 the US dollar index began to rally in the mid-2014 when market began to price in the interest rate lift expectation. 

II. The European Central Bank would maintain its supporting policies 

Moreover, the US withdrew liquidity earlier than Europe and Japan. The US dollar index is composed of 57.6% Euro and 13.6% Japan Yen and other currencies. The Euro and Japan Yen are the largest two components of the US dollar index. Recently the European Central Bank has reiterated its support for economy and said that it would not repeat the mistake made in 2011. In 2011 due to that the European Central Bank exited from quantitative easing policy earlier than expected, the Euro economy fell into depression again after the 2008 global financial crises.

III. So would Japan

The Japanese Bank also expressed the opinion that it would inject liquidity into economy if needed without hesitation. Moreover, Japanese government brought up with a new stimulus package valued at Japanese Yen 40 trillion (RMB 2.24 trillion). Given the quantitative easing policy of Europe and Japan, the Euro and Japanese Yen would be faced with downward pressure and the US dollar would strengthen. 

IV. RMB strengthen is supported by economy 

The RMB against the US dollar has been strong recently and reached 6.38 on Tuesday, which was the level in June 2020. It should be due to the better-than-expected economy datain October. Also international investors showed enthusiasm to Chinese assets.

V. Spirits and medicine sector rose in A-share

A-share fell while HK stocks rose. The spirits and medicine sector led A-share and HK market. HK stocks rose for six days in arow. The US retail sales in October came in higher than expected, which shows that despite the high inflation the US consumers still spent. The US stocks rose due to the better economic data. 

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