壹 别人家的股市

      我们在2021年8月发表了别人家的股市。自8月以来，别人家的股市表现越来越好，而A股和港股则表现持续落后。在全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中，有6个国家和地区指数年初以来涨幅超过20%，法国、俄罗斯、印度SENSEX30、标普500、纳斯达克和中国台湾地区分别上涨28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9%和20.2%。4个国家的指数上涨超过10%但低于20%，德国DAX、道琼斯、英国富时100和澳大利亚标普200指数分别上涨18.4%、18.1%、13.4%和11.9%。上涨低于10%的是日经225、韩国综合指数、深成指、上证指数，分别上涨8.2%、3.7%、1.9%和1.7%。恒生指数和巴西股指是仅有的两个下跌的股指，分别下跌5.8%和12.3%。

      贰 上涨有上涨的理由

      发达国家股市涨幅较高，一方面是发达国家一直保持着支持经济的宽松政策，对股市提供了流动性支持。具体可参见为什么美元和人民币同步走强？另一方面，发达国家的经济周期慢于我国经济周期。今年前三季度，欧美日的经济仍处于库存周期上行期，企业业绩增速喜人，支撑股市上涨。但3季度以后，发达国家的经济周期也会逐渐进入下行期，这意味着股市也可能会面临下行压力。但是，这种下行也要视经济走势。近期，美国通过了1.2万亿美金（约7.7万亿人民币）的基建法案，而日本也将推出价值2.4万亿人民币一揽子支持经济计划。因此未来即使经济下行，可能也会较平缓。俄罗斯股市走强应与原油价格上涨紧密相关，而印度股市走强则是强有力的货币政策支撑。

      叁 对A股和港股无需过度悲观

      A股走平，港股小熊市，主要是因为我国相对严谨的货币政策和财政政策以及经济进入下行周期。7月份以来的一些政策变化也引发了市场风险偏好的降低。我们预判经济应该在明年1-2季度企稳，之前预期的刺激政策也会随着经济的下行压力增加而逐渐出台。因此，当前估值水平下，我们认为对市场不应该过于悲观。

      肆 美股调整

      A股缩量上涨，港股缩量下跌。A股26个行业中，19个行业上涨，7个行业下跌。新能源板块领涨，银行、食品饮料和农林牧渔跌幅居前。因劳动力短缺和材料成本上升，美国10月新屋开工数下跌0.7%，折年率降至152万套。受经济数据低于预期影响，美股调整。股神巴菲特据报道连续四个季度净卖出股票。

I. Other people's stock market 

We published “Other people’s stock market”别人家的股市 in August 2021. From then on major stock market indexes continued to diverge. Among the 16 global major stock indexes 6 rose above 20% year-to-date (the same below). They are France,Russia, India Sensex30, SP500, Nasdaq and China Taiwan, which rose  28.8%、27.4%、25.7%、25.2%、23.9% and 20.2% respectively. Four stock indexes rose between 10-20%. They are Germany DAX, Dow Jones, FTSE100 and Australia SP200, which rose 18.4%、18.1%、13.4% and 11.9%.  Fourstock indexes rose less than 10%. They are Nikkei 225,  South Korea, Shenzhen Composite Index and Shanghai Composite Index, which rose 8.2%、3.7%、1.9% and 1.7% respectively. There are only two stock indexes falling. They are Brazil and Hang Seng Index, which fell 12.3% and 5.8% respectively. 

II. The reasons behind the rally

That developed nations performed well this year was due to both supporting monetary policy and economic cycle. Their economies are on an upward stage of an inventory cycle before 3Q2021. Yet from 3Q2021 developed nations would go on the downward stage of an inventory cycle. Hence, their stock markets might be pressured in the future. Russia stocks performed well due to the rising oil prices. India stock market was boosted mainly by easing monetary policy. 

III. No need to be too pessimistic 

The lackluster performance of A-share and HK stocks was caused by stringent monetary and fiscal policy partly. Also China’s economy was on a downward stage of an inventory cycle. Moreover, some regulations from July decreased market risk preference to some extent. We are optimistic that supporting policies would come out eventually with the economy activities cooling down further. Hence, one should not be too pessimistic about China's stock market.

IV. The US stocks corrected

A-share rose while HK stocks fell with contracted volume.The October housingstarts in the US came in lower than expected due to high building material costs and labor shortage. The US stocks corrected. It was reported that Warren Buffett has been selling stocks this year.

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