周二A股和港股均上涨，A股量能继续提升，港股量能略有下降。A股申万28个行业中17个上涨，比周一增加两个行业，其中电气设备、国防军工和医药生物涨幅领先，商业贸易、纺织服装和通信跌幅居前。抱团股全面上涨。港股周二是期指结算日，12个行业中10个上涨，仅能源和金融行业下跌，涨幅居前的是医疗保健、工业和综合业。北上资金净流入38亿人民币，南下资金净流入32.6亿港币。贵州茅台2020年收入和净利润分别增长11%和13%，每股派发股利19.293元，50%的股息支付率，但只有0.9%的股息率。股息率较低因为估值较高。

对市场不悲观。A股经过连续五周下跌后，上周有所反弹。本周开始的两个交易日股市继续上涨，但成交量一直处在较低水平。1季度是全年GDP同比增速的高点，但是不同企业的业绩走势不会完全跟GDP增速一致。去年全年受疫情影响的行业今年业绩会走出逐季提高的趋势。部分抱团股的估值仍处在历史较高水平，我们认为仍有下调的空间。由于去年是结构性行情，抱团股上涨，而大多数股票股价没有表现。所以，今年抱团股估值下调也不会对其他股票产生较大影响。我国经济向好，好企业会层出不穷，部分抱团股的走势不代表整体市场走势。

通胀是转瞬即逝的吗？市场对通胀是否能够如美联储主席鲍威尔和财长耶伦所预计的那样短暂升高表示怀疑。上周五公布的美国2月核心个人支出平减指数同比上涨1.4%，低于市场预期的1.5%。该数据暂时缓解了市场对通胀的担忧。10年期国债收益率也随之下降到1.67%。一直看涨股市的资深策略分析师亚蒂尼认为，3、4、5月份通胀由于基数的原因会走高，可能达到2.5-2.8%的水平，但这只是反应基数效应。如果到了3季度，通胀仍然保持这样的高位，那就是一个真正的问题。虽然通胀是一个风险，但他认为美国经济将会强劲增长，带动企业盈利增速超预期。他预测标普500年底目标价为4300，对照周二收盘价有8%的上涨空间；2022年底目标价为4800。

美股微跌。十年期国债收益率上升压制科技股。美国年初以来IPO达到100多起，融资额创出历史新高，对美股的走势形成压制。

Both A-share and HK stocks continued rally on Tuesday. 17 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with electric equipment, military defense and healthcare leading the market. Most of the group-holding stocks rallied. Only 2 out of 12 sectors in HK market fell, which were energy and financials. Healthcare, industrial and conglomerate sector rose the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 3.8 billion and HK$3.26 billion respectively. Kweichow Moutai released 2020 earnings results with revenue and net profit up 11% and 13% respectively. It announced dividend of RMB 19.29 per share, which is 52% dividend payout ratio and 0.9% dividend yield. The dividend yield is not high due to the stock’s high valuation.  

It’s no need to be pessimistic about the stock market. The first two trading days saw timid trading volume in A-share despite that the market rose. While some group-holding stocks still enjoy hefty valuation, they would not affect other stocks with solid fundamentals and low valuation. It is worth reminding that in 2020 only group-holding stocks rose while other stocks’ prices remained timid. Some companies were affected by the pandemic throughout 2020. In 2021they would see both earnings and valuation improvement. Their stock prices would not be affected by the continuous correction of some group-holding stocks. 

Would inflation be transient? Market doubts that inflation would be transient as expected by Fed Chairman Powell and the Minister of Treasury Yellen. According to long-time bull Ed Yardeni inflation might touch 2.5-2.8% over March and May simply because of the low base in 2020. He remained bullish on stocks and set his year-end target for SP 500 at 4400, which is about 8% up potential from Tuesday close and 2022 price target at 4800.

The US stocks fell slightly.  10-year treasury yield touched 14-month high and Tech stocks were pressured. 

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