壹 龙头企业纷纷募集资金

     在新能源车和储能行业快速发展之际，行业内公司纷纷通过多种融资方式筹集资金。11月24日，某电解液龙头企业公告定拟定增募资不超过55亿元，计划将其中的44亿元用于年产10万吨新型电解质锂盐项目，剩下的11亿元用于补充流动资金。值得注意的是，就在今年5月，该公司才刚刚完成一轮11.4亿元的定增。动力电池和隔膜龙头企业也分别发布了巨额定增计划。11月22日晚间，隔膜龙头企业披露非公开发行预案，公司拟定增募资不超128亿元，用于新增锂电池隔膜项目、铝塑膜项目等项目及补充流动资金。其中98亿元用于扩产，30亿元用于补充流动资金。11月15日晚间，动力电池龙头企业发布《关于调整向特定对象发行股票方案的公告》，把募集资金总额从不超过582亿元下调到不超过450亿元，主要用于扩充产能。而一家A-H两地上市的动力电池龙头企业年内在H股两次融资，分别获得138亿港元和299亿港元的资金。不光是中国企业忙于扩充产能，韩国在动力电池领域一个主要参与者LG Energy Solution（LG新能源）计划在2021年IPO，拟融资金额预计约100亿美元。

     贰 资本投入强度大幅提升

     这些企业短期内大规模扩产，导致资本投入强度大幅度提升。以前述动力电池龙头企业为例，从2014年到2020年，其资本支出占销售收入比例每年均在21-36%的区间。而隔膜龙头企业从2018年开始资本强度大幅度提升，从之前每年的资本支出占销售收入比例不足9%大幅提升到60%上下。随之而来的是自由现金流大幅下降，从2018年到2020年，其每年的自由现金流为-12到-16亿人民币。

     叁 产能会不会过剩？

     我们对比了传统能源企业在高峰期的资本支出强度，发现该传统能源龙头企业在2004到2008年每年的资本强度一直保持在33-43%的水平，2009年资本强度下降到26%，之后逐渐下降，近几年都在个位数的水平。因为过去10年传统能源企业一直遭遇产能过剩的困扰。当前的新能源会不会在大规模扩产之后面临同样的产能过剩问题呢？

     肆 市场仍缺乏方向

     A股缩量下跌，港股缩量上涨。市场仍处在缺乏方向的振荡中，一些冷门股表现较好。美股因感恩节休市。欧洲股市上涨，尽管疫情仍在加剧。

I . Capacity expansion

Companies in new energy sector recently has expanded capacity aggressively as the sector is at a booming stage. A leading producer of LiPF6 announced that it would raise capital at RMB 5.5 billion via private placement with RMB 4.5 billion to expand production capacity of 10-tonne electrolyte lithium salt and the remaining RMB 1 billion to supplement working capital. 

Before that the leading player in EV cell also announced that it would adjust down fund raised from RMB 58.2 billion to no more than RMB 45billion with a purpose to expand its EV cell production capacity. Another EV cell player with A and H dual listing has raised HK$ 13.8 billion and 29.9 billion respectively via two private placements recently. 

Also a renowned battery separator producer announced that it would raise no more than RMB 12.8 billion via private placement to increase production capacity. Not only Chinese players are busy in raising money to expand capacity. So do international players. LG Energy Solution, a leading EV cell player in South Korea is expected to raise US$ 10billion via IPO.

II. Capital expenditure intensity increased sharply

The capital expenditure intensity, which is capital expenditure in a year divided by revenue in that year, has increased sharply due to the fast capacity expansion for these companies in new energy sector. Take the example of the leading EV cell player in China, its capital expenditure intensity was at 21%-36% from 2014 to 2020. The battery separator player’s capital expenditure intensity was below 8% before 2018 but increased sharply to around 60% from 2018.

III. Would the production capacity become surplus?

We checked a leading coal miner’s capital expenditure intensity. It was at 33-43% from 2004 to 2008 and fell to 26% in 2009. From 2009 due to production capacity surplus this ratio fell continuously and was below 10% lately. We doubt that the new energy sector might face the same production surplus issue after this capacity expansion race.

IV. Market still lacks direction

A-share fell while HK stocks rose slightly. Volume was light in both markets. The US market closed due to the Thanksgiving holiday. The European market rose despite the spreading pandemic.

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