壹 贫穷的根源

     2019年诺贝尔经济学奖得主阿比吉特·班纳吉和埃斯特·迪芙洛在《贫穷的本质》一书中分析了全球10亿人每天只有0.99美元的生活费的原因，从穷人的日常生活、教育、健康、创业、援助等多方面，探究了贫穷的真正根源。他们指出，多年来的扶贫政策大多以失败而告终，主要是人们对于贫穷的理解不深刻，好钢没用在刀刃上。他们提出了一系列针对贫穷的政策措施，包括政府努力改善穷人的生活质量，帮助穷人获取正确的信息和做出正确的决策，以制度创新来帮助穷人获得贷款或者免费向穷人提供公共产品服务等。

     贰 疫情陷阱

     从两位诺贝尔经济学奖得主所研究的贫穷陷阱案例中，我们可以发现贫穷陷阱的产生通常伴随着错误的观念、认知、饮食和健康习惯以及制度安排上对穷人的歧视。近期的疫情反复也让我们思考是否也存在疫情陷阱。虽然疫情一波波爆发几乎成为常态，但有些国家一而再、再而三地陷在疫情中，可能在某种程度上也是因为各种因素导致的疫情陷阱。

     叁 产生原因

     首先，这些国家中的一些人认为疫苗不起作用，因此坚决不打疫苗。这与穷人顽固地坚持错误认知，比如认为自己就是学习不好而放弃学习有一定的相同之处。其次，有些国家确实是缺乏疫苗，是疫情下的真正的穷人。在这种情况下，解决疫情陷阱就需要世界有一种制度，让这些国家的人民能够得到充足而且价格可以接受的疫苗。再次，有些人坚持错误的行为方式，比如疫情下要坚持少聚集、出门戴口罩、勤洗手等行为规范。但是，因为文化或其他原因，有些人对戴口罩等行为并不认可。很遗憾，这些人就成为疫情下的穷人，要么遭受疫情的冲击，要么成为疫情的传播者。最后，有些政府也只关注短期的扶贫效果，给予穷人各种免费的福利。但是，这种扶贫通常不会有持续的效果。这与当前一些政府不断放水，希望通过放水来解决疫情带来的问题也有异曲同工之处。如何让这些国家和人民摆脱疫情陷阱也许是诺贝尔经济学学奖得主的下一个课题。

     肆 市场反弹

     周一A股和港股均下跌，市场担心中国会采取更严厉的隔离措施以应对新毒株。但欧洲和美国主要股市均上涨。石油、基本金属价格也反弹。投资人对奥密克戎仍然有很多未解答的问题，但正如我们在市场可能定价了最差情景中所预期的，市场从恐慌中缓解。

I.  Poverty trap

The Nobel Economics laureates—Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo analyzed the roots of poverty in their famous book“Poor Economics”.  They found that poverty derives from daily life, education, healthcare, setting up businesses and getting help, etc.They pointed out that poverty-relieving policies always fail because few people understood the nature of poverty. Policy makers usually take the wrong ways to deal with poverty. Banerjee and Duflo brought up with several measures to deal with poverty trap. These include that governments make efforts to improve the life quality of the poor, help the poor to get the right information and make right decisions, give the poor loans with creative lending system and offer them more welfare, etc.

II.  The pandemic trap

The authors found that poverty usually comes with the wrong thinking, diet and living habits, and discrimination to the poor inarrangements. Recently, a potential new wave of pandemic might surge around the world. We connect the poverty trap with the pandemic trap and found that there are a lot of things in common in these two situations.

III.  Similarities

The first is that wrong thinking plays a key role in both cases. Some people thought that vaccines do not work against the virus and resist taking them. This is similar to those in poverty who thought that they can’t learn well and give up learning. The second is that some nations do not have enough vaccines. For these nations there should be some arrangements in the world to help them. The third is that some people resist the right behaviorin the pandemic such as not gathering, washing hands frequently and wearing masks, etc due to this or that kind of reasons. This is similar to the poor who resist the healthy living habits. The last but not the least is that some nations are short-sighted in dealing with the pandemic. They injected a lot of liquidity into the economy. This is similar to that governments provide welfare to the poor, which can solve their poverty at one time but all the time.

IV.  Market rebounded from the selloff last Friday

Global markets rebounded from the selloff last Friday. Investors seem to shrug Omicron off for the moment.  

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