周三A股和港股均下跌。A股申万28个行业中11个上涨，比周二减少六个，其中建筑装饰、公用事业和家用电器涨幅领先，国防军工、休闲服务和有色金属跌幅居前。贵州茅台、三一重工和万科A等公司因为发布的2020年业绩某些方面不及预期，股价调整。港股12个行业中只有科技行业上涨，原材料和必需消费跌幅领先。万洲国际业绩不及预期，股价大幅调整。市场对公司业绩要求高，显示风险偏好较低。黄金价格从去年8月高点至今下跌18%。受此影响，紫金矿业A股和港股从2月高点分别下跌36%和41%。北上资金净流出79亿人民币，南下资金连续第四天净流入，金额为13亿港币。

经济强而股市弱是因为什么？3月份官方制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）为51.9%，非制造业PMI为56.3%，分别较前值上涨1.3和4.9个百分点。3月PMI超预期上涨一方面反应经济强劲复苏，内外需皆强；另一方面反应2月经济受疫情影响。PMI是环比数据，因此2月对非制造业而言疫情是一个低基数。但是，无论A股还是港股均走弱。背后的原因包括对经济复苏的信仰不足、3月信贷数据将显示流动性会收紧以及个别股票的高估值。我们认为2021年是全球复苏的一年，多个国家的经济增速将会超出预期，甚至可能达到过热的状态。因此，经济增长不是一个问题，可能增长过快会是个问题。再次，关于流动性的收紧，我们认为是一个缓慢的过程，不会对股市产生太大的冲击。最后，高估值股票下跌对低估值股票的走势影响不大。试想估值不到0.5倍市净率的股票会受到100倍市盈率的股票估值调整到30倍的影响吗？挖掘低估值价值股是应对今年股市波动的一个不错策略。

拜登如期宣布基建计划。该计划为期8年，规模2.3万亿美金，包括6210亿的交通基础设施投资、4000亿对老人和残疾人的照顾支出、3000亿对饮用水、宽带和电网的投资等。拜登计划将公司所得税从21%提升到28%以及其他加税措施来为该计划融资。分析人士认为加征公司税等举措10年的时间才可能获得1万亿美金的财政收入。所以，还得靠美联储印钱来融资，而这将会对美债收益率造成进一步的上涨压力。拜登宣布该计划后，周期、能源等股票下跌，科技股上涨。标普500创下历史新高。小非农就业数据显示2月私营部门就业创下去年9月以来的最大增幅。

Both A-share and HK stocks fell on Wednesday. 11 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share with construction, utilities and home appliance leading the market. Defense,leisure service and non-ferrous metal fell the most. Some companies including Kweichow Moutai’s 2020 earnings came in below expectation. Their stock prices corrected, reflecting market’s low risk preference. Only tech out of 12 sectors in HK market rose. Raw material and consumer stables fell the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 7.9 billion. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 1.3 billion, which is the fourth day net inflow in a row.   

Why the economy is strong but stock market is weak? Official manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) in March came in above expectation at 51.9%. Non-manufacturing PMI in March was 56.3%, higher than expected due to February low-base due to pandemic. But stock market did not react positively to the data. Market doubted the sustainability of economic recovery. We believe that global economy would recover strongly with the pandemic under control.  But there would be some periods when the pandemic resurges, the economy would be affected briefly. Liquidity would be taken back gradually as the central bank would not want to cause crash in stock market. The last but not the least it is true that group-holding stocks would continue to see valuation contraction. Some would see their price-to-earnings ratio from 100x down to 30x. But this would not affect those stocks whose price-to-earnings ratio might be below 5x and price-to-book ratio might only be 0.3x. 

Biden unveiled infrastructure plan. The plan will span over 8 years with a total spending up to US$2.3 trillion. Stocks sold on news. Cyclicals fell and tech rallied.ADP data showed that private sector employment in February saw the greatest increases since last September.

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