上周纳斯达克引领全球股指上涨。全球16个主要国家和地区指数（包括主要发达国家和金砖五国以及亚洲主要国家和地区）除英国富时指数微跌外均上涨。从各国经济领先指标看，大多超出市场预期。美国3月供应管理协会制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）达到1983年12月以来的新高，达到64.2。IHS Markit数据显示，经季节调整后，欧元区今年3月季调后制造业PMI终值意外略上修，由62.4调高至62.5，为1997年6月有纪录以来最高水平，且已连续9个月扩张。相比之下，虽然我国3月官方制造业PMI略超预期，但财新制造业PMI意外下跌到去年5月份的水平，尽管仍在扩张区间。反应我国经济复苏的动能可能略显不足。

反弹行情坚守低估值。上周A股和港股均反弹。A股申万28个行业中23个上涨，食品饮料、休闲服务和电子行业涨幅领先，而传媒、非银金融和商业贸易领跌。港股上周因受难节只有四个交易日，恒生12个综合行业中2个下跌，分别为必需消费和公用事业，医疗保健、科技和工业涨幅领先。我们认为受经济景气度带动，A股和港股有望继续反弹，但不易对反弹过于乐观。首先，核心资产的估值远远没有达到合理的水平。另外，从上周发布的2020年业绩看，有些公司的业绩稍微有一点低于预期，就会遭到市场抛售，也反应市场对核心资产的风险偏好降低。其次，宏观经济好转带动美国国债收益率继续上行。市场目前预期到1.8-2%的水平。尽管国债收益率上行最陡峭的阶段已经过去，但是，未来如果上行幅度超出预期，对高估值个股仍有较大压力。我们仍然认为低估值个股会有较好表现，包括银行、周期以及受益经济复苏的板块。从这个角度而言，我们认为港股将会比A股有更好的表现。主要原因是这些低估值股票在港股的估值更低，而且港股投资者更关注盈利恢复情况。而随着全球经济复苏，这些板块的盈利将会逐季增长。低估值和盈利持续增长的股票将会在今年占据优势地位。

美国3月非农就业人数大超预期。受到服务业强劲复苏的带动，美国3月非农就业达到916,000，这是2020年8月以来的最高水平，远远高于市场预期的675,000。失业率也下降到6%。受这一消息带动，美股大涨，道指和标普均创出历史新高，10年期美债收益率保持在1.71%。美联储面临采取紧缩措施的压力。

Nasdaq led the global stock market rally last week. Among global 16 major indexes including major developed countries and BRICs as well as major Asian stock markets, only FTSE Index in the UK fell slightly last week. All of the other stock markets rose boosted by better-than-expected economic data. The US ISM manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index （PMI） in March came in as 64.2, the highest since Dec. 1983. IHS Markit PMI for Europe in March was adjusted from the initial reading of 62.4 up to 62.5, the highest since June 1997. European PMI has been above the threshold 50 for nine months in a row. China’s official manufacturing PMI in March was also above expectation. Yet Caixin PMI, which mainly measures the situation of the middle- to small-scale enterprises, fell to the level of last May but maintained above 50, implying that China’s economy probably doesn’t rebound as strongly as expected.

Stick to low-valued stocks in rebounding stage.Last week both A-share and HK stock market rebounded after continuously falling for weeks. We believe that low-valued stocks would be good choices in market rebounding. Firstly, the so-called core assets’ valuation is still at hefty levels. Some stocks’ prices fell sharply recently as their 2020 earnings missed to some extent, reflecting that market has become picky for these core assets. Secondly, the US 10-year Treasury yield would continue to rise as economy recovers quickly. Market expects it to reach 1.8-2% in 2021.Further increase of the Treasury yield would still weigh on the high-valued stocks. We believe that HK stocks would perform better than A-share due to low valuation and strong earnings growth.

The non-farm payroll in March was far better than expected.DOW and SP500 reached record high. Fed is under pressureto take back liquidity as economy is on good course of recovery and inflation is going up. Market implies that the first rate hike would be at the end of 2023 rather than 2024, as guided by the Fed. Moreover, before Fed raises interest rate, it would cut back on bond purchasing scale first. Market expects that Fed would begin to taper in the 2nd half of this year. 

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