周四A股和港股均上涨。A股申万28个行业中25个上涨，比周三增加14个，其中钢铁、休闲服务和家用电器涨幅领先，银行、公用事业和采掘下跌。沪深股通因港股周五受难节休市暂停。A股成交量再次回到不足7000亿人民币。港股12个行业中10个上涨，科技、医药和消费行业领涨，公用事业和地产下跌。周四是港股通节前最后一个交易日。南下资金连续第五天净流入，金额为40.5亿港币，较前一交易日提升311%。央行在国新办新闻发布会上表示我国货币政策不受美国影响，未来我国货币政策要稳字当头，保持人民币币值对内和对外的稳定。

3月财新PMI低于预期。3月财新PMI为50.6%，环比下跌0.3个百分点，连续4个月放缓。尽管仍然处在扩张区间，但是已经回到2020年5月份的水平。受外需恢复影响，新出口订单2021年来首次回到扩张区间。3月购进价格指数录得2017年12月以来最高值。受成本上升推动，出厂价格指数升至2016年12月以来最高值。受访企业表示，价格上涨抑制了需求的进一步恢复。展望未来一年，制造业企业普遍相信产出将会继续增长，乐观度较2月略有放缓，但仍为过去七年以来的较高水平。

美股未来大幅上涨的可能性降低。1季度道指、标普和纳斯达克指数分别上涨7.7%、5.8%和2.7%。1季度大幅上涨之后，未来美股涨幅有限。首先，经济改善的斜率放缓。尽管美国经济仍在恢复，但未来可能会看到个人收入、采购经理人指数以及GDP数据改善幅度放缓。其次，股市估值为22倍的动态市盈率，处在历史较高水平。最后，盈利增速难超预期。美国上市公司的收入增速一般是GDP增速的两倍。2021年美国经济增长预计在7%，则上市公司的收入预计增长14%。目前市场预期的收入增速为9%。较高的收入增速也意味着较高的盈利增速，股票也将会持续上涨。但是，盈利上调的广度（即上调盈利的公司数）已经达到2010和2018年的最高点。前两次高点之后，下调盈利的公司家数迅速增加，抑制了股市整体走势。

美股上涨，标普首次站上4000点。上周首次申请失业救济人数高于市场预期。美国3月ISM制造业PMI录得64.7，创1983年12月以来新高。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Thursday. 25 out of 28 sectors rosein A-share with iron and steel, leisure service and home appliance leading the market. Bank, mining and utilities sector fell. Trading volume fell to below RMB700 billion for the second time year to date. 10 out of 12 sectors in HK rose.Tech, healthcare and consumption sector rose the most. Utilities and property sector fell. Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect trading halted as HK market closes on Good Friday. South-bound capital net inflow was HK$ 4.05 billion, the fifth-day net inflow in a row.  

March Caixin PMI came in below expectation. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in March dropped to 50.6 last month — the lowest level since April 2020 — from February’s 50.9, missing analyst expectations for an uptick to 51.3. New order index rose above 50, the threshold for expansion and contraction, for the first time in 2021 as overseas demand picked up. Purchasing price index and producer price index rose to their highest level since Dec 2017 and Dec 2016 respectively. Yet firms remained strongly optimistic about the business outlook over the next year due to hopes of an end to the pandemic, a rebound in overseas demand and plans to expand capacity, the survey showed.

The upside potential might be limited for the US stocks. DOW, SP500 and Nasdaq rose 7.7%, 5.8% and 2.7% respectively. Significant gains are less likely going forward. Chief US equity strategist of Morgan Stanley believed that the economy will likely see slowing rates of change in personal income, purchasing managers indexes and GDP. Moreover, SP 500 trades at 22x price-to-earnings of 2021,which is at the high levels in history. Market is most likely to bounce up and down at current levels.

The US stocks rallied. ISM manufacturing PMI in March came in at 64.7, the highest since Dec. 1983.

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