周二A股微跌，成交清淡。申万28个行业中，21个行业上涨，7个行业下跌。其中国防军工、汽车和钢铁涨幅领先，休闲服务、家用电器和食品饮料跌幅领先。因港股市场休市，周二没有北上资金，市场成交量创下年初至今的新低。外围市场的大幅上涨对A股指数并没有产生重大影响，市场人气比较低迷，但部分中小盘个股走势较强，显示市场风格可能正在从大盘成长转向中小盘股。深交所晚间公告，康得新终止上市。注册制下退市节奏将会有较快提升，使资本市场得以充分发挥配置资源的功能。国际货币基金组织上调2021年全球经济增速从5.5%到6%，并将中、美和欧盟的经济增速分别上调到8.4%、6.4%和4%，并称全球经济2021年将会录得40年最大涨幅。

3月财新服务业采购经理人指数上升到54.3。这是去年12月以来的最高水平。2月份该数据为51.5。受访企业普遍反应3月份的经济活动和总体销售是年初以来升幅最大的。这应该是跟疫情在春节前后得到有效控制密切相关。新出口业务虽然仍处在收缩区间但是降幅已收窄。财新同时发布了3月综合制造业和服务业的采购经理人指数，从2月的51.7上升到53.1。

4月美股将会开启一波打脸上涨。4月初美股开启强劲反弹，道指、标普和纳斯达克指数在过去两个交易日分别上涨1.67%、2.62%和3.43%。Fundstrat Global Advisor的创始人汤姆李认为股市4月份将会持续上涨，而机构投资者在过去三个月一直卖出科技和成长股，而对去年遭受疫情严重影响的股票仅仅有少量配置，他们手里的现金达到2000亿美金。4月份会有更多的来自经济方面的惊喜。机构投资者可能不得不追涨，有望推动标普500达到4200点。但是之后股市可能会盘整消化快速上涨。

比尔黄事件有可能再度发生。瑞士信贷宣布因为比尔黄的对冲基金爆仓，该行将不得不承担47亿美金的损失。市场人士认为未来还会有这种爆仓事件发生，直到市场下跌，泡沫破裂，这种情况才可能不再发生。美股微跌。周二劳工部宣布截止2月底美国新增用工需求268,000，总计用工需求达到740万，好于市场预期。下周美股开始报1季度业绩。如果业绩超预期，则美股还有上涨的动力。

A-share fell slightly amid low trading volume. 21 out of 28 sectors rose.Military defense, and iron and steel sector rose the most while leisure service,home appliance and food and beverage fell the most. HK market closed for the Easter holiday.  Hence there was no Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect trade. Trading volume reached the lowest level year-to-date. IMF raised global economic growth rate in 2021 from 5.5% to 6%.It also raised China growth rate in 2021 from 8.1% to 8.4%. It forecast that the US GDP will grow 6.4% and Euro region GDP will grow 4%. 2021 would see the fastest global economic growth rate in 40 years.

Caixin service Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in March rose to 54.3. This is the highest sinceDec. 2020. Feb. reading was 51.5. Firms reported the sharpest increases inactivity and overall sales in three months. New export business continued to contract but at a slower pace.  The higher-than-expected reading in March might be due to that pandemic was well under controlled after the Spring Festival. The service sector is more vulnerable under the pandemic. Caixin’s composite manufacturing and services PMI rose to 53.1 in March from 51.7 in Feb.

The US stock market could see a face-ripper rally. Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors said that institutional investors raised US$ 200 billion of cash since the start of the year by selling tech and growth names. But there might be more positive surprise from economy, which he predicted could push SP 500 to 4200 in April. This implies 3% upside from Tuesday’s close. Institutions might have to chase high. After that the stock market might consolidate the gains for sometime.

The US stocks fell slightly. Job openings at the end of Feb. reached 7.4 million, higher than expected. The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.66%. Next week the US companies will report 1Q2021 earnings. If the earnings come in better than expected, then the stock market has more room to run. 

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