周四A股微涨，成交量有所放大。申万28个行业中，9个行业上涨，19个行业下跌。其中医药生物、食品饮料和有色金属行业涨幅领先，公用事业、房地产和建筑装饰跌幅领先。因一季度业绩不及预期，个别股票大幅下跌。港股周四大幅上涨，恒生综合行业指数中8个行业上涨，4个行业下跌。其中必需消费、原材料和金融行业领涨，能源、科技和电信行业领跌。北上资金净流出17亿人民币，较前一交易降低40%。贵州茅台和中国中免分别净流出14.7和5.7亿人民币。南下资金净流入47.3亿人民币，较前一交易日提升456%。腾讯控股股东减持股份，南下资金净流入50.6亿港币。

一季报不是真正的考验，二季报才是。因去年受疫情影响导致的低基数，今年1季报超预期的个股很多。但是超预期不见得是股票涨的理由，低于预期却一定是股票下跌的理由。近期一些抱团股2020年以及2021年一季报稍微有一点点低于预期都会遭到机构抛售。对于大幅低于预期的个股，股价在短时间内腰斩近期也比较常见。我们认为一季报仅仅反应过去发生的事情。真正重要的是1季报超预期的个股能否在经济恢复正常的基础上继续保持较好的盈利增速。而低于预期的个股能否证明1季报低于预期仅仅是一个短期现象。我们对去年2季度因与疫情相关而业绩较好的行业保持谨慎态度。这些股票今年2季度业绩很可能会低于市场预期。一方面去年疫情导致业绩高基数；另一方面，今年随着全球疫情得到控制，对抗疫相关的产品需求也将呈现下滑趋势，这些公司的收入增速和盈利能力都将受到考验。因此，一季报对上市公司而言并不是真正的考验，真正的考验在二季度，特别是去年表现较好的行业和个股。

史蒂芬·罗奇质疑拜登总统对华政策。前摩根斯坦利亚洲区主席指出尽管拜登上任之后逆转了特朗普的许多外交政策，但保留了漏洞百出的中美第一阶段贸易协定以及关税。洛奇建议采取冷静务实的举措处理中美关系。周四美国商务部宣布将7家中国超级计算公司纳入国家安全黑名单。中美关系真是“冰冻三尺，非一日之寒”。

美股上涨，标普500再创新高。上周初次申请失业救济人数为744,000，高于预期的694,000。10年期国债收益率从高位回落到1.6%，科技股上涨。

A-share rose slightly with increased volume on Thursday. 9 out of 28 sectors rose with biomedicine, food and beverage and non-ferrous metal leading the market. Some stocks fell sharply as their 1Q2021 earnings missed expectation. HKmarket rallied. 8 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with consumer stables, raw material and financial sector leading. North-bound capital saw net outflow ofRMB 1.7 billion, down 40% from Wednesday. Kweichow Moutai and China Duty-free saw net outflow of RMB 1470 and 570 million respectively. Thursday marked the highest net outflow of north-bound capital for Kweichow Moutai. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 4.73 billion, up 456% from Wednesday. Tencent’s stake-holding company sell shares. South-bound capital net bought HK$5.06 billion of Tencent.   

1Q2021 earnings are not the real test. 2Q2021 earnings are. Due to the pandemic in1Q2020, many companies’ 1Q2021 earnings came in above expectation. Stock prices might not rise due to the better-than-expected earnings as the better performance was due to a low base. Yet for those whose 1Q2021 earnings missed,their stock prices fell sharply. 1Q2021 has passed. We believe that 2Q2021 is a real test for those companies whose earnings grew rapidly in 2Q2020 due to the pandemic. We are not optimistic regarding these companies’ earnings prospects in 2Q2021. Firstly, demand for pandemic-related products fell sharply this year as China controls the pandemic spread well. Secondly, the high-base last year would be a challenge for these companies. In any case it is key to grow earnings in a sustainable way for listed companies.

SP500 reached another record high. The initial jobless claim last week was 744,000,higher than 694,000 which market expected. Yet stocks rose with tech stocks rallying.10-year Treasury yield fell to 1.6%. Stephen Roach, a famous economist, expressed his concern on Sino-US relationship and suggested a level-headed approach from both sides.

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