周五A股和港股缩量下跌。上周（下同）上证指数、创业板指和科创50分别下跌0.97%、2.42%和2.19%。申万28个行业中，11个行业上涨，17个行业下跌。其中钢铁、综合和采掘行业涨幅领先，休闲服务、食品饮料和电气设备跌幅领先，这些行业都是抱团股集中的行业。恒生指数、国企指数和科技指数分别下跌0.83%、2.14%和3.08%。恒生综合行业指数中5个行业上涨，7个行业下跌。其中原材料、综合和工业行业领涨，科技、能源和医疗保健行业领跌。北上资金净流出53.3亿人民币，较前一交易降低46%。南下资金净流入70.4亿港币，连续第二周净流入。

中美3月份通胀抬升。我国3月消费者价格指数（CPI）由上月同比下降0.2%转为上涨0.4%。其中，猪肉价格下降18.4%，降幅扩大3.5个百分点。非食品中，受汽油、柴油价格上涨影响，工业消费品价格上涨1.0%，为近一年来同比首次上涨。我国3月生产者价格指数（PPI）同比上涨4.4%，超市场预期。和上年同期相比，3月PPI涨幅比上月扩大2.7个百分点。从环比看，受国际大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，PPI上涨1.6%，涨幅比上月扩大0.8个百分点。美国劳工部发布数据显示，经季节性因素调整，美国3月份消费者价格指数环比下降0.4%，预期下降0.3%，2月份上涨0.1%；未经季节性因素调整，同比上涨1.5%，预期上涨1.6%，2月份上涨2.3%。扣除食品和能源，美国3月份核心CPI环比下降0.1%，预期上涨0.1%，2月份上涨0.2%；同比上涨2.1%，预期上涨2.3%，2月份上涨2.4%。美国3月PPI同比增长4.2%，超市场预期的3.8%，大超前值2.8%，连续第11个月上升，并创下2011年以来新高。

中美通胀未来走势判断。从3月份的数据看，中美两国的CPI上涨压力不大，但PPI上涨压力较大。这与我们在2021年1月发表在枫瑞视点微信公众号的2021年A股投资展望中预测的中美两国CPI和PPI走势基本一致。我国今年前三季度在猪肉价格下跌的带动下，CPI不会有明显上涨。但美国因去年4、5月份的CPI为低基数，当月同比增速分别为0.3%和0.1%。因此，今年4、5月美国CPI有可能会超过2%。而PPI美国历史上看通常要在两年左右达到高点（表一）。我国今年PPI一般12个月达到顶点（表二），今年2季度有可能见到。

表一：我国PPI上行周期

数据来源：WIND，北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司

表二：美国PPI上行周期数据来源：WIND，北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司

数据来源：WIND，北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司

上周五美股大涨。经济复苏股引领上涨，恐慌指数下降到17。

Last Friday both A-share and HK stocks fell with contracted volume. Last week (the same below) major indexes in both A-share and HK market fell. In A-share 11 out of 28 sectors rose. Food and beverage, leisure service and electric equipment sector, which were group-holding stocks mainly from, fell the most. In HK market 5 out of 12 Hang Seng sectors rose with raw material, conglomerate and industrial sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 5.33 billion,down 46% from the previous week. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$7.04 billion,the second week of net inflow in a row.   

Both China and the US saw inflation pick up in March. China Consumer Price Index(CPI) in March rose to 0.4% year-over-year (yoy) versus fell 0.2% yoy in Feb. Porkprices fell 18.5% yoy in March compared with 13.2% in February. Industrial consumer goods' prices rose 1% yoy in March, the first time to rise yoy in one year due to rising prices of gasoline and diesel oil. China Producer Price Index (PPI) in March rose 4.4% yoy versus 1.7% in Feb, mainly due to the rising prices of commodities. The US CPI in March fell 0.4% month-on-month (mom) and rose 1.5%yoy. Core CPI, which excludes energy and food, fell 0.1% mom and rose 2.1% yoy.The US PPI in March rose 4.2% yoy versus 2.7% yoy in February. The US March PPI growth rate yoy has reached the highest level since 2011. The USPPI hasincreased yoy for eleven months in a row. The trends of CPI and PPI in both China and the US are basically in line with what we predicted in “Investment outlook for A-share in 2021”. For both China and the US inflation in consumer would not be a major concern in 2021, although the US will see CPI growth rate rise above 2% yoy in April and May due to low base.  But producer inflation would continue to rise in both countries.

Both Dow and SP500 reached record high last Friday. Recovery stocks led the rally. VIX Index fell to 17 from above 20.

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