周一A股抱团股大跌打击人气。其实抱团股下跌并不奇怪，估值高再叠加业绩不达预期，总是有资金会抛售。但因为抱团股上集聚的资金太多，所以引发的扩散效应对其他板块造成较大打击。上证指数下跌1个百分点多，但估值较高的创业板指和科创50均下跌超过2%。从行业上看，只有3个行业上涨，分别是公用事业、钢铁和房地产，其余25个行业下跌，其中有色金属、轻工制造和化工板块领跌。一些1季报业绩增速较好的个股周一集体暴跌，侧面反应市场对其未来业绩增速的可持续性缺乏信心。我们上周指出一季报不是真正的考验，二季报才是，主要因为去年1季度因为疫情是个业绩低基数，而去年2季度对很多受益疫情的企业是业绩高基数。当然，对于1季报增速就低于预期的企业，股价连续下调也并不令人意外，譬如某快递公司。回过头看，当资本市场对其业务扩张欢呼的时候，其实就是其股价达到高点的时刻。

3月社融数据确认流动性拐点。3月社融规模存量增速从2月的同比上涨13.3%下降到12.3%，人民币贷款同比增速从12.9%下降到12.6%。M1和M2同比增速也分别由2月的7.4%和10.1%下降到7.1%和9.4%。3月社融新增面临去年的高基数，2020年3月因为疫情，社融新增达到5.18万亿人民币的天量。但是人民币贷款同样面临去年的高基数，但仅少增了1186亿元，反应需求强劲，经济基本面并不差。考虑到美国流动性仍在扩张，而我国流动性收缩，这种资金格局与2018年比较相似。2018年美国经济因为特朗普减税效应增长强劲，而我国经济处于下行期，叠加贸易战和去杠杆，股市遭受重创。但今年情况不同，我国经济增速强劲。虽然2季度美国经济因为低基数而强劲增长，而我国因为去年1季度是低基数所以2季度经济增速同比不会强于美国，但是2季度我国仍处于补库存周期。所以，今年不是2018年，经济复苏至少在上半年看是持续的。今年我国收缩流动性是为了防止发生通胀和资产泡沫的风险，缓慢收缩流动性对市场的总体压力不大。2018年我国去杠杆导致股市发生风险，资本市场“一遭被蛇咬，十年怕井绳”。但是2018年也是监管部门的前车之鉴，我们认为历史不会重演。

周一美股从高位滑落。本周美国上市公司开始发布2021年1季度业绩，市场预期业绩增速将会比较强劲。拜登周一与议员讨论2万亿美金的基建计划。

Group-holding stocks tumbled on Monday. Group-holding stocks tumbled again and caused other stocks to fall with them. While Shanghai Composite Index only fell 1%+, the high-valued Chinext Index and STAR 50 fell more than 2%. There are only 3 sectors out of 28 rising, which were utilities, iron and steel and property. And non-ferrous metal, light manufacturing and petrochemical fell the most. Some companies in these falling sectors fell to the down limit despite that they released strong 1Q2021 earnings. This might because that the market was doubt about their earnings growth sustainability. We have pointed out that 1Q2021 earnings are not the real test but 2Q2021 earnings are because 2Q2020 earnings are high-base especially for those companies benefiting from the pandemic last year.  

Aggregate Social Financing (ASF) showed turning point in March. ASF grew 12.3% year-on-year (yoy) versus 13.3% in Feb. RMB loan grew 12.6% yoy versus 12.9% in Feb. M1 and M2 grew 7.1% and 9.4% yoy respectively compared with 7.4% and 10.1%in Feb. ASF in March was faced with a high base in March 2020, when ASF increased by RMB 5.18 trillion as government aimed to boost economy hit by the pandemic. Yet RMB loan only fell slightly compared with March 2020 although it was faced with a high base as well. This reflected that economy is quite strong.The US is still releasing liquidity and China is taking back liquidity. This pattern seems to be similar to that in 2018. Yet in 2018 China economy was on a decline due to trade war, destocking of inventory and deleveraging policies. China economy would be in restocking stage of inventory cycle in 1H2021 and would still grow solidly. We do not foresee what happened in 2018 to come back again. After all 2018 provides a cautionary tale for both stock market and supervision authorities.

The US stocks fell from record high. President Biden met with a bipartisan group of lawmakers to push US$ 2 trillion infrastructure package. The US companies will report 1Q2021 earnings results this week.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。