崩盘季。近期因市场调整，年前认购基金的投资者遭受不同程度的损失，使基金的发行面临困难。不时有基金募集失败的消息见诸媒体。去年抱团股的击鼓传花游戏难以为继，导致抱团股一个接一个上演崩盘。崩盘的另外一个原因就是个股估值较高，透支了未来几年的业绩。而抱团股闪崩的催化剂主要来自于业绩低于预期。这是高估值造成的必然结果。没有企业能够持续保持高速增长，50-100%的年业绩增速偶尔可以见到，但是长期保持是不可能的。所以，股价在高位时，很可能是市场将短期当成长期，将偶然当成必然，股价势必面临调整。周二尽管A股市场羸弱，但仍有9个行业上涨，其中农林牧渔、食品饮料和医药生物领涨，而休闲服务、钢铁和采掘领跌。

你的投资期限有多长？抱团股以及上世纪70年代美国的漂亮50均被认为可以持有一辈子的股票。漂亮50中的一些股票持有到今天，确实是几十倍股。但是一个投资人能够投资的年限有多长呢？股票投资者能做到像巴菲特持股几十年的并不多见。但产业投资人包括一级市场投资人和企业可以持有很长时间，他们给予的估值也都比较高。一个例子是2006年百威以58.86亿人民币收购福建雪津啤酒。雪津啤酒的净资产为5亿人民币，估值为12倍的市净率，对照某著名白酒公司当前16倍市净率。啤酒公司是重资产行业，用每百升企业价值（EV/hl）来衡量更合理。百威收购雪津的价格相当于100美金EV/hl，而当时中国啤酒企业估值约25美金EV/hl。百威收购雪津后，雪津的产能不断扩大，从2006年的75万吨扩张到2019年的200万吨，销售收入达到50亿元。百威并购雪津的价格很高。但随着企业经营规模不断扩大，经营效益提高，十多年后看百威出的价格并不高。A股市场上也有一些来自一级市场的基金。他们采用产业的视角进行投资，不看重当前的估值。只要行业没有重大变化，十多年后看他们所投资的企业最终还是能够带来回报。如果你也可以投入这么长的时间，高位买入好公司的股票是没问题的。最终好企业会提供好的回报。

周二美股科技股大涨。美国3月消费者价格指数环比上涨0.6%，同比上涨2.6%，均超市场预期。美国FDA因罕见血栓症状宣布暂停接种强生公司疫苗。周三摩根大通、高盛和富国银行将会发布2020年4季报。

Group-holding stocks tumbled one after another. With these group-holding stocks continuous falling those investors who bought funds holding these stocks suffered losses. This has made it difficult to issue new funds. Hence, the game to pass the parcel is over. That’s why group-holding stocks fell. Of course,another reason is due to that their valuation is way too high even after falling a lot from the high point. While the overall market was quite weak on Tuesday, there were still 9 sectors rising amid 28 in A-share. They were farming and fishery, food and beverage and bio-medicine. Leisure service, iron and steel and mining fell the most. The catalyst to the tumble of group-holding stocks is mainly from earnings disappointment.This is actually the fate of high-valued stocks. No companies can maintain earnings growth rate as high as 50-100% per annum. High growth happens occasionally not frequently. If investors extrapolate what happens in the long term based on the situation in the short term, then stocks would crash sooner or later.

How long can you invest in the stock market? In stock market it is not common for investors to invest for up to more than 10 years. But for industry and investors from the primary market their investment horizon is usually that long,if not longer. In 2006 InBev acquired Xuejin Brewery for RMB 5.9 billion, whichwas 12x price-to-book ratio (PB). As a contrast, nowadays a famous Chinese liquor company is valued at 16x PB. By 2019 Xuejin Brewery has almost tripled its production capacity and its overall sales revenue was RMB 5 billion. So given a long period of time investment in a good company is rewarding despite high valuation at the time of purchase. The question is whether you can hold a stock for that long.

The US tech stocks rallied. The US March CPI grew 0.6% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, higher than expected. Recovery stocks fell as FDA called for a pause of inoculation of J&J vaccine.

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