周三A股和港股均缩量上涨。A股申万28个行业中25个上涨，其中休闲服务、电气设备和有色金属领涨，而下跌的行业为银行、农林牧渔和公用事业。成交量创出年初以来的新低，两市成交仅为6500亿人民币。港股恒生12个综合行业全部上涨，其中原材料、医疗保健和科技行业领涨。北上和南下资金均为净流入。北上净流入57.3亿人民币，较周二84.66亿减少32.3%。南下资金净流入13亿港币，较周二略增。

行情会是一日游吗？A股和港股均在连续下跌三天后迎来缩量反弹。很多投资者关心这种行情是否具有持续性。成交缩量表明大量资金采取观望态度，也就是对股市心存疑虑。我们倾向于认为A股市场整体行情的可能性不大，主要原因是沪深300的估值太高，当前静态市盈率为14.9倍，处于历史90%的分位。沪深300的权重主要是抱团股。分行业看，在A股28个行业中，当前静态市盈率在40倍以上的一共有8个行业，其中休闲服务、计算机和国防军工的静态市盈率最高，分别为180、60.6和60.6倍。而银行、房地产和建筑装饰的静态市盈率是所有行业中最低的，分别为7.5、8.4和9.3倍。A股年初至今10个板块上涨，其中银行和建筑装饰分别上涨7%和4%，分别列涨幅的第三和第五位。在下跌的18个行业中，高估值的国防军工和计算机跌幅较大，休闲服务行业跌幅较小。港股估值较低。以市净率看，港股的综合（即香港本地股）、能源和电讯的静态市盈率分别为0.4、0.5和0.7倍。港股年初以来12个综合行业中9个上涨，3个下跌。其中涨幅较好的行业均有低估值支撑，譬如涨幅前三的综合、能源和原材料。而仅有的三个下跌行业分别为必需消费、科技和医疗保健，他们都对应高估值。我们认为无论港股还是A股未来还将延续低估值公司上涨、而高估值公司回落的格局。所以，今年看市场整体走势并无太大意义。2021年将更注重自下而上选股，只要估值低、业绩好，无论在A股还是港股都有表现的机会。

美股从高位滑落。科技股大跌，拖累标普500和纳指，因经济复苏，通胀上涨。道指上涨，周三高盛、摩根大通等银行公布的业绩皆超预期，市场对经济复苏前景乐观。鲍威尔讲话指出今年美联储不太可能加息。周四将要公布3月零售数据，预期环比2月增长6%，因1400美金支票已发放到个人。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Wednesday.  25 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with leisure service, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal rising the most.Bank, farming and fishery and utilities fell the most. Trading volume in both Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange was RMB650 billion, the lowest level year-to-date. In HK market, all of the 12 sectors rose with raw material, tech and healthcare sector rising the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 5.73 billion, 33% lower than the net inflow on Tuesday. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$1.3 billion, slightly higher than the net inflow on Tuesday. 

Will the stock market continue to rise? Both A-share and HK stocks rose after falling for three days in a row. The low trading volume shows thatmany investors were not participating in the rally. They might want to figureout whether the rally can continue firstly. Our view is that broad market rally might not continue as major indexes are valued at a high level. Take the example of CS 300  Index, it is valued at 14.8x trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio (TTM PE). This puts it at 90% percentile in history. Hence, there is just small room for it to improve valuation. If we analyze A-share from sector perspective, among the 28 sectors there are 8 sectors with TTM PE above 40x. And leisure service, military defense and computer are the highest valued with TTM PE at 180x, 60x and 60x respectively.  Bank, property and construction and decoration are the lowest-valued sectors with TTM PE at 7.5x, 8.4x and 9.3x respectively. Year-to-date there are 10 sectors rising. Most of them are low-valued sectors. In HK year-to-date 9 out of 12 sectors rose in HK market. The low-valued sectors performed better and the high-valued sectors fell. We believe that this year in both A-share and HK market low-valued sectors and stocks would outperform high-valued ones. Stock-picking becomes more important this year. 

DOW rose.  Bank earnings were better than expected.

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