周五A股和港股均上涨。上周（下同）上证指数和创业板指分别下跌0.7%和0.26%，科创50上涨0.8%。申万28个行业中12个上涨，汽车、采掘和食品饮料领涨，而休闲服务、银行和公用事业领跌。港股恒生指数、国企指数分别上涨0.9%和0.45%，而科技指数下跌0.89%。恒生12个综合行业中9个上涨，能源、原材料和非必需消费领涨，而科技、医疗保健和金融下跌。北上净流入从前两周的净流出转为净流入247亿人民币，该净流入金额为年初以来第二高，仅次于春节前一周的253亿人民币。南下资金连续三周净流入，上周净流入44.9亿港币，较前一周净流入金额下跌36%。

1季度经济增速略低于预期。我国1季度GDP同比增速18.3%，略低于市场预期，因疫情抑制消费。2019和2020年两年平均GDP增速为5%，低于趋势增速。1季度出口超预期，但随着国外疫情的好转带动生产能力的提升，我国出口增速很可能会走弱。投资中的基建增速超预期，房地产增速保持稳定。未来需关注投资和消费增速能否弥补出口增速下降。我们判断一旦经济走弱，货币和财政政策将积极应对。

道指36000。1999年，詹姆斯·格拉斯曼和凯文·哈希特合著《道指剑指36,000点》一书。他们在书中指出，债券和股票的风险长期来看是相同的。因此，为了让股票与债券的风险一样，股市要上涨3倍。他们预期3-5年内道指可以达到36000点。当时道指接近10000点。但《股市长线法宝》的作者杰里米·西格尔随即在华尔街日报上对他们的观点进行了反驳。他认为股票的收益率需要高于通胀保值债券的收益率。当时，10年期通胀保值债券的收益率为4%。随后一年股市迎来了互联网泡沫的破裂。而《道指剑指36000点》也被当成是市场过热时的热血言论被人一笑置之。上周道指在经济数据和企业盈利超预期的好消息刺激下，首次迈过34000点大关。当前10年期通胀保值债券的收益率为-0.77%。在负利率的支撑下，道指36000应该很有希望近期实现。A股上证指数10多年来一直在3000点上下波动。上证指数如果在当前水平上涨2倍，有机会上万点。如果保持当前估值水平，则需要企业盈利增速未来10年每年增长12%以上。随着注册制的逐步推行，好企业将会成为市场的主导。我们认为未来上证指数有希望保持一个稳定的盈利增速。届时A股上万点也不是梦。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose last Friday.  Last week (the same below) Shanghai Composite Index (SCOMP) and Chinext Index fell 0.7% and 0.26% respectively while STAR50 rose 0.8%. Hang Seng Index and China Enterprises Index rose 0.9% and 0.45% respectively while Tech Index fell 0.9%. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 24.7 billion, the second highest weekly net inflow year-to-date. South-bound capital saw the third week net inflow in a row at HK$4.5 billion.

GDP growth rate in 1Q2021 slightly missed expectation. 1Q2021 GDP grew 18.3% year-on-year, slightly lower than expected, mainly due to that the pandemic pressed consumption. Export was still strong. But with the developed countries’ vaccination rollout faster than expected their production capacity would pick up, meaning China’s export growth might face some challenges going forward. Whether investment or consumption can make up the hole from export weakness is a key. If economy turns weak the monetary and fiscal policy would become more proactive.

DOW rose above 34000.  In 1999 James Glassman and Kevin Hassett wrote a book called “Dow 36000”, in which they expected DOW to reach 36000 in a couple of years. They based their argument on that stocks can rise 2 times higher as investors face the same risk for investing stocks and bonds in the long run.Jeremy Siegel, the author of “Stocks for the long run” repudiated their argument by pointing out that stocks should have real return above 10-year TIPS bonds, which yielded 4%. In 2000 stock market crashed amid internet bubble. The book “Dow 36000” was almost considered a joke. Today 10-year TIPS bonds yield -0.77%.Last week Dow passed 34000 for the first time in history. With the negative interest rate it is likely that Dow reaches 36000 soon. In contrast SCOMP has been bouncing around 3000 for years. But if the listed companies can grow earnings at 12% per annum over the next ten years, SCOMP would reach 10000.

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