周一A股放量大涨。A股申万28个行业中24个上涨，涨幅居前的分别为汽车、电气设备和有色金属，跌幅居前的行业为钢铁、商贸和综合。沪深两市成交量创下一个月以来的高点。港股恒生12个综合行业中10个上涨，医疗保健、原材料和工业领涨，而科技和能源下跌。北上资金净流入163亿人民币，为年初以来净流入金额第二高，仅次于1月8日的206亿。南下资金净流入51亿港币，与前一交易日持平。上海车展周一开幕，汽车板块受到提振，涨幅在A股和港股都处于领先位置。上海车展显示汽车未来的发展方向为电动化和智能化，产业链利润格局将被重塑。根据券商预测，到2030年，我国汽车行业来自于售后服务和用车服务的利润将从2017年占比17%，总计1.16万亿人民币提升到占比34%，总计4.5万亿人民币。汽车行业市场规模将从10万亿上升到20万亿。如此大的市场规模吸引各路公司纷纷加入造车的行列。

买给谁呢？有一个小故事说一个投资人买了几千股股票，股价上涨之后告诉给经纪人卖掉股票。经纪人回答：卖给谁呢？你是唯一购买这只股票的人。老龄化社会对资产价格的压力从这个故事中可见端倪。美国前商务部长彼得·彼德森在其著作《灰色的黎明》中指出：前面有一座要崩塌的冰山，它被称为全球老龄化，它可能导致强国的崩溃。发达国家解决老龄化的办法包括全球化、开放移民等。我国也面临人口出生率持续下降、老年人口占比持续攀升的问题。未富先老是一个无可回避的现实。央行最近关于人口的研究报告引起市场的广泛关注，其结论就是只有提高出生率才能解决人口问题。本月底我国第七次人口普查报告将发布，市场预期人口政策将会有所调整。

欧元区经济走强，美元走弱。高盛将欧元兑美元汇率从1.21美元兑1欧元上调到1.25，未来12个月的目标价格为1.28。高盛同时上调了泛欧洲600指数的目标价格，预计未来12个月该指数上涨10%，而标普500预计只上涨6%。高盛上调欧元汇率的理由包括疫苗接种加快以及住院人数下降，预期欧元区的经济增长因此将会加速。国际货币基金组织预测欧元区2022年经济增长3.9%，重新回到疫情前的水平。高盛认为美元1季度走强只是反应了疫苗接种比欧元区早，并不是美国经济持续强于欧元区。

美股从高位滑落。科技股领跌，受益经济复苏的股票上涨。

A-share rallied with the biggest volume in a month. 24 out of 28 sectors rosewith auto, electric equipment and non-ferrous metal leading the market. And iron and steel, commerce and trade and conglomerates fell the most. In HK 10 out of 12 sectors rose with healthcare, raw material and industrial leading the market.  Tech and energy sector fell. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 16.3 billion, only lower than RMB 20.6 billion on Jan. 8th. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$5.1 billion. Shanghai Auto Exhibition opened on Monday, which triggered market sentiment towards auto sector. Auto will become more intelligent and electric vehicle will become the mainstream in the coming 10 years. The profit deriving from after-market service  and driving service will increase substantially from RMB 1.16 trillion, which was 17% of auto sector’s profit in 2017, to RMB 4.5 trillion in 2030, 34% of the sector profit. Market cap will double from current RMB10 trillion to RMB 20 trillion. Such a big market has attracted many players to join.

Who can you sell stocks to? Aging society has become a gray rhino for asset prices. Peter Peterson, the ex-Minister of Commerce in the US, pointed out in his book “Gray Dawn” that aging has become a global issue and this would cause the strong nations to crash. Developed countries have resorted to globalization and immigration to deal with this issue. China is also faced with aging issue with continuously falling birth rate and the elderly taking a bigger share of population. But China is different from the developed nations in aging issue. According to a research paper by the People’s Bank of China, developed countries with an aging population problem tend to be wealthier with a per capita GDP of at least $2,000, while China’s is half that at $1,000. The seventh population census results are to be released at the end of this month. Market expects China’s population policies to make some changes.

The US stocks fell from record high.   Tech stocks fell the most while economic recovery stocks rose. 

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