周三A股探底回升。受隔夜美股下跌影响，A股和港股均跳空低开。A股申万28个行业中9个上涨，涨幅居前的为医药、银行和休闲服务，跌幅居前的为钢铁、汽车和公用事业。港股主要指数跌幅在1.7-1.8%之间，恒生12个综合行业全部下跌，其中能源、科技和非必需消费跌幅居前。北上资金净流出10.6亿人民币，南下资金净流入42亿港币，南下资金在港股市场大跌时抄底。

该恐惧还是该贪婪？不论市场在顶点还是底点，恐惧和贪婪是投资者一直要面对的问题。正如诺贝尔经济学奖得主耶鲁大学经济学教授罗伯特·席勒所言：股市如战场，投资者要做到知己知彼，但知己不易，知彼更难。投资者必需掌控自己的冲动，也需要洞察他人的冲动。当其他人恐惧时贪婪，当其他人贪婪时恐惧。如何判断其他人是恐惧还是贪婪？有很多指标可以跟踪，比如股价的回落程度、成交量以及基金的发行进度等。上面的分析其实都是和行为金融学紧密相关。相较于有效市场假说中的假设所有人都是理性的，在行为金融学中既有理性参与者，也有有限理性参与者。韭菜一茬一茬地被割，就是因为一波有限理性参与者被赶出市场，另一波有限理性参与者又进入了市场。做理性参与者需要逆向思维，跟人性对抗。一个被广为传播的股价曲线中，投资者往往在股价最高点最乐观，在股价最低点最悲观。当投资者觉得不错的股票价格下降了，会不舍得卖出，想等到价格升了再卖，结果价格持续下跌，就更不舍得了，解套遥遥无期，而理性的行为则应该是及时止损。行为金融学也发现不常查看其投资组合的投资者会经历更少的痛苦，从而能减少情绪带来的影响，防止做出糟糕的决策——研究结果表明，如果投资者按月查看自己的投资组合， 而不是每天都得查看一遍，他们将会减少38%的损失。在投资者的行为偏差中，还包括过度依赖以往股票的表现来推断未来的价格走势等。投资线性外推往往是危险的。具体到当前市场，是该恐惧还是贪婪呢？我们认为总体市场的热度较春节前有较大幅度的降温，无论是从成交量还是基金的发行来看。很多个股短期回落幅度也较大。因此当前至少不需要过于恐惧，部分个股存在明显低估，可以贪婪的。

美股大涨。市场全方位上涨。国债收益率回落到1.55%，原材料价格上涨，而美元弱势，市场处在刚刚好的完美阶段。

A-share bottomed out while HK stocks tumbled on Wednesday. Due to that the US stocks fell overnight both A-share and HK stocks jumped low. In A-share 9 out of 28sectors rose with healthcare, bank and leisure service rising the most and ironand steel, auto and utilities falling the most. In HK all of the 12 sectors fellwith energy, raw material and discretionary consumption falling the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 106 million. South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$4.2 billion. South-bound capital bottom fished when HK market fell sharply.

Should we fear or be greedy? Whether the market is on the top or at the bottom, to fear or be greedy is always a question for investors. Just as Nobel laureate Robert Shiller pointed out, the stock market is like a battlefield and an investor should know him- or herself as well as other investors. However, it is rather difficult to know ourselves and it is even more challenging to know other investors well. Investors should keep herd instinct under control and observe others’ herd instinct clearly. When other peoplefear you should be brave and when other people are brave you should fear. The above analyses are associated with behavioral finance. In behavioral finance, some people are rational while others are not that rational. Investors are being played for a sucker one after another mainly because that they are not that rational. Investors are always most optimistic when the stock prices are at their top and the most pessimistic when stock prices are at the bottom. Now should we fear or be greedy in A-share? Several indicators to follow including fundraising, trading volume and how big stock prices fall, etc showed that A-share hascooled down quite a lot compared with what happened before the Chinese New Year.We should not fear too much. Some stocks are valued at low levels and worth being greedy.

The US stocks rallied.  Market fired on all cylinders. 10-year Treasury fell to 1.55% together with a soft US dollar creates goldilocks for the market. 

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