A股周一下午跳水，港股小幅下跌。A股成交量创下3月16日以来的新高达到9000亿人民币以上。申万28个行业中只有3个上涨，分别是采掘、有色金属和化工。恒生12个综合行业中只有原材料行业上涨，其余11个行业均下跌，其中必需消费、地产建筑和公用事业跌幅领先。北上和南下资金分别净流入32亿人民币和19.8亿港币。周一收盘后，市场监管总局发消息称将对美团涉嫌“二选一”垄断行为进行调查。无论是中国还是美国的网络股今年都面临监管压力,从而影响他们的股价表现。

抱团股为什么又跌了？A股周一下午突发跳水，抱团股领跌。抱团股面临双重压力，一是估值过高压力。尽管春节后抱团股股价有一些调整，但其估值仍处在历史较高水平。这波拉估值行情始于2019年初，两年时间资金将抱团股估值推高到了历史较高水平。以沪深300为例，其调整前最高点所对应的静态市盈率为17.4倍，仅次于2015年股灾发生前的市场最高点所对应的静态市盈率18.7倍。春节后至今，抱团股股价调整了2个月。估值虽然有所下降，目前为14.9倍，但仍处于近10年来90%的分位。罗马不是一日建成的，估值的抬升非一日之功，消化估值的过程也将会持续比较长的时间。以时间换空间对整体股市来说是一件好事情。如果以快速杀跌的方式调整估值，则对股市的冲击较大。二是一旦抱团股有一定幅度的上涨，基金面临的赎回压力就会加大。这主要是因为过去两年无论公募还是私募基金都主要投资于抱团股。为应对赎回压力，在其他股票都卖出之后，只能卖抱团股。因此，未来抱团股的股价如果不是下跌则至多是震荡。从刚刚发布完毕的基金一季报可以看出，抱团股已经有瓦解迹象。基金加仓顺周期板块，对抱团股的持仓水平总体回落。年初至今A股红利指数的涨幅为7%，远远领先其他风格指数，也表明资金在向价值股转移。上述表明，抱团股所代表的大盘成长未来上涨空间不大，每次上涨都应该是减仓的时机。

美股涨跌不一。标普500中1/3的公司发布了2021年1季度业绩，其中84%的公司盈利正增长。标普和纳斯达克指数创出历史新高，道指回落。拜登本周将会宣布一系列对富人征税的政策，包括提高资本利得税至几乎原来的两倍。白宫方面认为资本利得税只会对0.3%的人口征收，因此影响不大。

A-share tumbled and HK stocks fell slightly on Monday . A-share dived on Monday afternoon. Only mining, non-ferrous metal and petrochemical sector rose out of 28 sectors rose in A-share. In HK market only raw material sector rose out of 12 sectors in HK. And consumer stable, property and utilities sector fell the most.North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.2 billion and HK$1.98 billion respectively. The State Administration for Market Regulation announced that it would investigate Meituan for its monopolistic business behavior of “Choosing one from two”. This year both Chinese and the US mega-tech firms are faced with supervision measures, which would dent their stocks rally.

Why group-holding stocks fell again? The dive of A-share on Monday afternoon was mainly due to the sell-off of group-holding stocks, which are faced with two challenges. Firstly, their valuation is still at hefty levels.Take the example of CS300, its trailing-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio(TTW PE) was 17.4x, which was only second to the highest level-18.7x before market crash in 2015 over the last 10 years. Group-holding stocks began correction after the Chinese New Year. After two months’ correction CS300 is valued at 14.9x, which puts it at 90% percentile over the last 10 years. Secondly,redemption pressure rose with the group-holding stocks rising. As so many mutual funds have put their money in group-holding stocks, they have to sell them when faced with redemption pressure. Hence, group-holding stocks’ prices would at best bounce up and down if not go down sharply. 1Q2021 reports of mutual funds showed that they are moving away from group-holding stocks. They increased exposure to cyclical stocks while cut exposure to group-holding stocks. In summary, any bounce of group-holding stocks are the chances of getting out of them.

The US stocks mixed. Dow fell while SP 500 and Nasdaq hit record levels.

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