周二A股和港股均探底回升。A股申万28个行业中7个上涨，21个下跌,涨幅居前的为医药生物、休闲服务和纺织服装。恒生12个综合行业中7个上涨，5个下跌，原材料行业继续领涨，公用事业、能源和金融行业跌幅居前。北上和南下资金分别净流入35亿人民币和8.3亿港币。贵州茅台一季度净利润同比上升6.6%，为2015年以来的最低增速。

美团将被处罚但影响不大。摩根·斯坦利认为市场监管总局对美团的调查并不令市场感到意外，美团之前已经完成了募资，罚款风险应是可控的。野村认为美团可能会因违反反垄断法被国家市监局定罪。按垄断法规定，罚款额为上年度综合营业额的1%-10%。如罚款是按上一年销售额的4%(如阿里巴巴的情况)，美团将可能被罚款46亿元人民币(约7.06亿美元)，相当于美团净现金余额180亿美元的约4%，包括最近发行股票和可换股债券筹集的100亿美元，预计潜在罚款对美团的业务影响有限。该行维持美团买入评级，目标价404港元。美团股价周二早盘下跌，之后转涨。

买入周期股并不晚。过去一个月，周期股总体跑输市场。自去年9月份直到四月中旬，美股的价值股跑赢成长股20个百分点。但根据美国银行，在经济复苏的早期阶段，价值股通常跑赢成长股60个百分点。通胀和对经济敏感的股票的表现通常紧密相关。对未来五年的通胀预期已经从去年9月份的1.5%上升到2.4%。成长和价值股之间的估值差异也反应股市并没有反应经济复苏。成长股对价值股的估值差与危机刚开始的时候是一样的，比2008年金融危机以来的中位数水平要高。银行是对利率非常敏感的周期股。当经济好转时，对贷款的需求会增加。同时随着经济复苏，利率曲线将更为陡峭，银行的净息差会提升。尽管美国国债收益率上升，但银行的表现并没有完全反应经济复苏的乐观前景。对上游周期股而言，铜铝等金属价格从去年3月份的低点已经或接近翻倍。金属类上市公司都有较大的经营杠杆，因此，他们的净利润增速应远大于收入增速，后者受金属价格的驱动。这类周期股应该还有上涨空间。

美股涨跌不一。2月份房屋价格同比上涨12%，15年来最大涨幅。

Major indexes in both A-share and HK market rose slightly on Tuesday. Trading volume was lower than on Monday in both markets. 7 out of 28 sectors rose with bio-medicine, leisure service and textile sector rising the most. In HK market 7 out of 12 sectors rose with raw material sector still rising the most. Utilities, energy and financial sector fell the most. North-bound and south-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB3.5billion and HK$ 830 million respectively. Morgan Stanley (MS) believed that it was not out of expectation that Meituan was investigated by the State Administration for Market Regulation for monopolistic business behavior. MS thought the likely punishment to Meituan would not have big impact on its business. Nomura estimated that Meituan might be fined RMB 4.6 billion, 4% of its revenue (same as what Alibaba has been fined). Meituan has raised RMB 10 billion recently via stock and bond issuance and its net cash balance is RMB18 billion.  

It’s not late to buy cyclicals. Cyclicals lagged behind the overall market in April. Cyclicals outperformed growth stocks by 20 percentage point from last September till mid-April. But they usually outperform growth stocks by 60 percentage point in early stage of economic recovery, according to Bank of America. Valuation gap between growth and value stocks is the same as the pandemic began and higher than the median levels from 2008 global financial crises till now. Banks are sensitive to economic recovery and interest rate. When economy recovers demand for loans increases. Meanwhile, banks’ net margin will expand as interest rate will rise with economy going up. Although the US treasury yields have risen two times from their lows in last August, banks’ stock performance is lagging behind. So do the metal stocks. Metal listed companies have big operating leverage, which will drive their earnings to grow much higher than metal prices.

The US stocks mixed. Home prices in February rose 12% year-on-year, the biggest gain in 15 years.

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