周四A股和港股连续第三天探底回升。A股申万28个行业中19个上涨，9个下跌,涨幅居前的为非银金融、银行和家用电器，跌幅居前的钢铁、综合和汽车。恒生12个综合行业中只有医疗保健行业在连续几天上涨后周四下跌，其余11个行业上涨，原材料、综合和公用事业涨幅居前。北上资金净流入50.9亿人民币。港股通周四暂停，5月6日恢复交易。

持股还是持币过节？五一假期在即，持股还是持币过节的问题又出现了。春节之后的股市暴跌还历历在目，投资人对过节期间存在的不确定性心有余悸。不过，这个问题其实并没有特别的意义。首先，投资是“风物长宜放眼量”。股神巴菲特的老师本杰明·格雷厄姆说过：股市短期是投票机，长期是称重机。研究发现，股价走势与盈利增速的相关度随着时间的拉长而提高。短期的股价变动可能就是一个小扰动，为了这种可能的扰动而卖出好股票不见得是明智的做法。其次，我们判断支撑股市的因素不会一夜之间发生重大变化，包括经济增速和财政货币政策等。最近对全球市场产生较大影响的是印度的新冠疫情。尽管印度新冠疫情严重，但是根据经济学家的预测，今年印度仍有10%以上的经济增速。最新消息是印度自己研制的疫苗正在进行临床三期实验，将有可能在五月中旬获得当局的紧急授权。这对印度控制疫情应该会有所帮助。国内的货币政策维持中性状态。虽然大宗商品价格持续上涨，但从上市公司的一季报来看，还没有对中下游企业的利润率产生比较明显的影响。因此，货币和财政政策也不存在急剧转向的可能性。最后，从一个股票上赚取较高收益一定要有较长时间的持股周期才可能做到。短期炒作赚不到大钱，而且很容易被市场情绪所左右。

美股大涨。上市公司1季度业绩持续超预期，分析师认为经济学家很可能低估了欧美经济复苏的强度。周五会公布个人消费支出指数，这是衡量通胀水平的关键指标。华尔街预期5月份通胀将会达到3%的水平，预期美联储在6、7月份讨论缩减债券购买，9、10月份宣布，明年1月份实施债券缩减计划。

Both A-share and HK market rose.  Thursday marks the third day in a row that markets bottomed up. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB5.09 billion. HK-connect was paused for the Labor holidays and will resume trading on May 6th,2021.  

To hold stocks or not during the Labor holidays? This question actually does not make much sense in that one should take a long-term view on investment. Big returns come from holding good stocks as long as you can. Benjamin Graham, the mentor of Warren Buffett, ever said that stock market is a voting machine in the short-term and a weighting machine in the long term. Research also found that the stock prices’ correlation with earnings increase with the duration of investment horizon. Currently the major risk to global stock markets is the worsening pandemic in India. But economists still expect India GDP to grow 10% or above in 2021. Moreover, it was reported that India was developing its own vaccine and possibly approves it for mass vaccination in May. While inflation pressure is rising with commodity prices, China has maintained a neutral monetary policy and an active fiscal policy. From 1stquarter earnings of listed companies in A-share the rising commodity prices have not caused margin contraction. Hence, there is no need to worry about the sharp U-turn of monetary and fiscal policy. 

The US stocks rallied. Company earnings in the first quarter of 2021 were above expectation. Some analysts believed that economists might underestimate the strong recovery of economy from COVID-19. On Friday personal consumption expenditure data in March will be released, which is a key measure of inflation and Fed observes closely. The Wall Street expects that consumer price index in May could reach as high as 3%.The consensus for tapering is that Fed will talk about tapering in June or July and announce its plan in Sept/Oct and execute it in Jan 2022.  

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