周四A股下跌，港股上涨。申万28个行业中13个上涨，15个下跌。其中涨幅居前的是钢铁、采掘和有色金属行业，跌幅居前的是休闲服务、医药生物和食品饮料。抱团股大跌。港股恒生12个综合行业中9个上涨，3个下跌，能源、金融和非必需消费行业涨幅居前，而科技和医疗保健跌幅居前。因为美国支持医药企业放弃疫苗专利，A股和港股的疫苗企业受到影响，股价重挫。

抱团股大跌。周四抱团股因不同原因再次大跌。跌幅最大的休闲服务因五一假期过去，炒作资金撤离。医药生物的下跌除了上面提到的美国放弃疫苗专利之外，还有医美股的集体跳水，也应与炒作资金撤离有关。食品饮料下跌主要是白酒股和乳业股下跌，白酒股中的古井贡酒、泸州老窖和洋河股份分别下跌9.98%、6.14%和4.78%，乳业股中的光明乳业和伊利股份分别下跌4.91%和3.17%。白酒股的下跌应是因为古井贡酒2021年1季报不及预期，引发市场对整个板块的担忧。港股餐饮股下跌，海底捞重挫7.4%，股价较2月17日高点接近腰斩。所有下跌抱团股的一个共同特点是估值较高以及基本面2季度可能面临一定的挑战。与之相对应，有色钢铁等低估值股票涨势如虹。国际大宗商品价格频频上涨，为这些股票提供了基本面支撑。同时，对于通胀是否能够短暂上涨而后消逝，市场存在一定的分歧。包括高盛和美国银行在内的一些外资投行认为，铜价未来可能会持续上涨。而美联储则认为通胀将在4、5月份高基数和供应链紧张的作用下暂时上涨。这种分歧反而为大宗商品上涨提供了契机。我们判断股票投资环境已经发生了很大变化，未来全球经济有可能进入高利率、高增长和高通胀的环境。再用过去的投资框架进行投资有可能会错失市场中的机会，而拘泥不变很可能造成较大损失。“芳菲歇去何需恨，夏木阴阴正可人”。市场风格变换需及时把握。否则，当你感到“萧瑟秋风今又是”的时候，股票市场可能已经是“换了人间”。

美股大涨。上周首次申请失业救济人数不到50万人，为疫情以来的最低点，也好于市场预期。道指大涨300多点，接近前期高点。

A-share fell while HK stocks rose on Thursday. In A-share 12 out of 28 sectors rose with iron and steel, mining and non-ferrous metal rising the most.Leisure service, bio-medicine and food and beverage sector fell the most. In HK 9 out of 12 sectors rose with energy and financial sector rising the most. Tech and healthcare sector fell the most. Because the US might forgo patents on COVID-19 vaccines, vaccine producers’ stocks tumbled in both A-share and HK market.

Group-holding stocks fell sharply. Stocks in leisure service, food and beverage and bio-medicine sectors dived on Thursday. The reasons behind are high valuation and that earnings growth of these stocks might miss expectation. We believe that economic conditions are changing from low interest rate, low inflation and low growth to high interest rate, high inflation and high growth gradually. The new economic environment would be more friendly to low-valued stocks than to high-valued stocks.Those investors who cannot shift their investment frameworks quickly might miss good investment opportunities and incur big losses. Fed believes that inflation would be transient in April and May due to the low base in 2020 and supply chain interruption from the pandemic. But some investment banks including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America thought that copper prices would see an upward trend lasting for years due to supply shortage and high demand from new energy. Hence, inflation might persist. Moreover, for 2021 developed countries along with developing countries would see above trend GDP growth rate due to the low base in 2020.  For example, the US and UK would grow GDP at 7% and 7.25% respectively in 2021. China and India would see 9% and 11% GDP growth rate respectively. The global economy growth would see the fastest rate in 40 years. Ultimately group-holding stocks might no longer be the favorite ones in the market and their stock prices might suffer big retreat.

The US stocks rallied.  The initial jobless claim last week was better than expected. 

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