上周五A股下跌，港股微跌。五一长假后两个交易日，A股的上证指数、创业板指和科创50分别下跌0.81%、5.85%和4.41%。申万28个行业中11个上涨，17个下跌。其中涨幅居前的是钢铁、采掘和有色金属行业，跌幅居前的是休闲服务、医药生物和电子。值得注意的是茅指数在4月份连续下跌2个月后反弹7.4%，而五月两个交易日就下跌了4.92%。很多“茅股”跌破技术均线，预示后期走势也不容乐观。港股上周五个交易日，恒生指数、国企指数和科技指数分别下跌0.4%、1.17%和4.31%，恒生12个综合行业中6个上涨，6个下跌，其中能源、原材料和公用事业非涨幅居前，而科技和医疗保健跌幅居前。辉瑞CEO周日发文明确表示反对美国政府放弃疫苗专利。

美联储削减购债规模对股市的影响有多大？A股市场投资人对美联储何时收回流动性普遍表示关注。最近一次美联储削减购债规模发生在2014年。美联储在2013年12月宣布，2014年1月开始实施。回顾2013年下半年和2014年，美股基本不受购债规模缩减的影响。而新兴市场股市在美联储开始缩减购债规模前后表现疲弱，主要受到风险偏好较低导致资金更青睐发达国家、美元指数上涨以及资源品价格下跌的影响。从估值角度看，标普500在2014年1月静态市盈率为18.3倍，而当前为33倍，对比2000年网络泡沫破灭之前的静态市盈率最高点为30倍。市场普遍认为美联储削减购债规模将会导致美股大幅调整，从而结束美股从疫情开始后持续一年多的牛市。事实是否如此有待验证。上一次削减购债规模之后美股走势未受到影响主要是因为美国经济基本面强劲。所以，这一次美联储回收流动性，如经济基本面能够保持强劲，则对股市有短期冲击，但不会造成重大影响。同时随着大宗商品价格持续上涨，以巴西、俄罗斯为代表的资源国的基本面不会差。而美国经济较强，对新兴市场中的出口国经济也提供支撑。经济强，则股市强，对美联储回收流动性也许并不需要谈虎色变。

美股上周五大涨。4月非农就业人数26.6万，预期为99.8万。失业率上升到6.1%，预期为5.8%。非农数据不及预期将延后美联储收缩流动性。

A-share tumbled while HK stocks fell slightly last Friday. Over the two trading days last week A-share fall sharply. The so-called Kweichow Moutai Index fell 4.92% after rising 7.4% in April. This index fell for two months in a row in Feb and March. The fall last week signals that its rebound in April came to the end. Its future is full of uncertainties as many stocks have fallen below 120-day moving average line. HK stocks traded for 5 days last week. Hang Seng Index, Enterprises Index and Tech Index fell 0.4%,1.71% and 4.31% respectively. 6 out of 12 Hang Seng Composite Index rose with raw material and energy sector rising the most.

How much impact would Fed’s tapering have on the stock market? Investors in A-share are concerned that Fed’s tapering might cause the global stock market to crash. The most recent tapering happened in 2014 and Fed announced the tapering in Dec. 2013. The US stock market was not affected that much while the emerging stock markets fell sharply in 2H2013 and 2014. There were three factors contributing to the poor  performance of the emerging markets. The first is that risk preference for emerging markets were lower than for developed markets as global economy was weak. The second is that US dollar appreciated in mid-2014 and this caused capital to fly back to the US stock markets. The last but not the least is that commodity prices declined and resource countries such as Brazil and Russia were faced with challenges to grow their economy. But this time things are different. The commodity prices are rising and hence resource countries would see robust economic growth. Moreover,strong economies of developed countries means that their consumption demand would drive the economic growth of export-oriented developing countries. Hence, this time might be different if Fed begins to taper.

The US stocks rallied. The lower-than-expected non-farm payroll might delay Fed’s action to take back liquidity.  

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