周一A股和港股均是“煤”飞“色”舞。茅指数缩量下跌0.09%，为连续第四个交易日下跌。申万28个行业中15个上涨，13个下跌。其中涨幅居前的是采掘、钢铁和有色，跌幅居前的是农林牧渔、食品饮料和房地产。港股恒生12个综合行业中8个上涨，4个下跌，其中原材料、能源和综合行业涨幅居前，而科技、必需和非必需消费以及电讯业跌幅居前。无论A股还是港股，均是防御性行业领跌，而周期性行业领涨。北上资金净流入45.3亿人民币，南下资金净流出64.7亿港币。其中美团净流出37.5亿港币，腾讯净流出17亿港币。美团被爆出外卖员工均为外包公司员工，引发投资人对资本没有底线的惊叹，进而甩卖公司股票。

为什么美股能够长牛？2000年互联网泡沫破灭后，美国非制造业采购经理人指数在2001年10月达到最低点40.5，2004年1月达到最高点67.9。标普500在2002年10月达到互联网泡沫破灭后的最低点756.2点，在2007年10月达到此轮反弹的最高点1576.7点。也即非制造业采购经理人指数的低点和高点分别领先股市的低点和高点1年和3年，跟美股的表现相关性不太强。但2008年金融危机之后，二者之间的相关性有了显著提高。非制造业采购经理人指数在2008年11月下跌到了最低点37.6，非制造业采购经理人指数从2008年11月低点反弹一路向上，在2009年10月升过50的荣枯线后就一直运行在荣枯线之上，直到2020年4月因为新冠疫情而再次下探到41.8的低点。与之相对应，标普500在2009年3月达到最低点666.79，之后开始十年长牛。十年期间，非制造业采购经理人指数仅在2014年2月和2016年8月产生过两个低点，分别是51.6和51.4。而标普500在这两年里都曾经短暂下跌。非制造业的持续繁荣支撑了美国股市的长牛。美国经济中服务业占GDP的比例在80%以上，而制造业占比仅为11%，后者受到经济周期的较大影响。而我国经济中服务业的占比为54%，制造业占比为39.9%。相比美国，我国的经济结构决定了股市会受到经济周期的较大影响。

美股下跌。科技股领跌，投资者担忧通胀上升压制科技股估值。

Cyclical stocks rallied in both A-share and HK on Monday.Kweichow Moutai Index fell 0.09% with contracted volume. 15 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with mining,iron and steel and non-ferrous metal sector rising the most. 8 out of 12 Hang Seng composite sectors rose with raw material and energy sector rising the most. Defensive sectors fell the most in dual markets including consumption and telecom sectors. South-bound capital saw net outflow of HK$ 6.47 billion. Tencent and Meituan saw net outflow of HK$1.7 billion and HK$3.75 billion respectively. It was reported that Meituan did not pay its riders properly and its stock price crashed.

What’s behind the ten-year bull market in the US? In 2008 global financial crises Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in the US found its lowest point 37.6 in Nov. 2008 and then went up to above 50, the threshold for expansionand contraction in Oct. 2009. It remained above 50 until April 2020 when COVID-19 pushed it to 41.8, the lowest after 2008 global financial crises. Accordingly,SP 500 in March 2009 reached its lowest point and then began a 10-year bull market. ISM non-manufacturing PMI briefly dropped to 51.6 and 51.4 in Feb 2014 and August 2016. SP 500 also fell in 2014 and 2016. The reason behind the US 10-year bull market is its economic structure. In the US service sector contributes more than 80% of its GDP while manufacturing contributes only 11%. As service sector is less affected by economic cycle than manufacturing sector, the US stocks can maintain long-term bull market. In China service sector contributes 54% of GDP while manufacturing contributes 39.9% of GDP. China would rely more on manufacturing than the US. Hence, its economy is subject to economic cycle more than the US. So is the stock market.

The US stocks fell. Tech stocks tumbled as investors worries that high inflation would drag down tech stocks’ valuation. 

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