周二A股探底回升，港股大跌。周期股包括煤炭、钢铁和有色股普遍大幅调整，白酒股涨幅领先。港股恒生12个综合行业中只有必需消费行业上涨，11行业下跌，其中原材料和科技行业跌幅居前。北上资金净流出47.8亿人民币，南下资金净流入49.3亿港币。周二央行发布一季度货币政策报告认为美债收益率上升以及美联储调整货币政策对我国影响有限且可控。我国4月份生产者价格指数上涨6.8%，超出市场预期的6.6%，涨幅比3月扩大2.4个百分点，主要是大宗商品价格上涨超预期。国际市场也普遍担忧大宗商品上涨引发通胀超预期，进而促使美联储提前回收流动性。但高盛策略分析师认为通胀只是暂时的，而其大宗商品分析师则预计铜价将会持续数年上涨。尽管美联储有可能提前回收流动性，但不同以往，美元指数没有走强，反而进一步走弱，在周二跌破90关口，为2月25日以来首次。市场当前预期似乎有点混乱。

第七次人口普查数据。国家统计局11日公布第七次全国人口普查数据，65岁或以上老年人口比率由2010年的8.9%扩至2020年的13.5%。去年人口平均年龄38.8岁，与美国相当。而我国人均GDP只有美国的1/6，未富先老是不可回避的现实。去年新生儿约1200万人，创历史低点，较2019年降低约18%。摩根大通发表研究报告，指出中国人口很可能于2025至2030年见顶之后下降，而老年人口比率预计从现在的13.5%扩大到2040年的23%至25%。总人口减少及人口老龄化将对中国潜在增长带来负面影响，拖慢经济转型及加剧社会保险资金缺口。报告称，中国面临人口陷阱风险，政府需多管齐下降低风险，包括尽快取消或进一步放宽生育政策等。因低生育率不仅由于生育政策，也是社会经济发展的结果，如养育小孩成本增加，结婚减少及离婚增加等，因此除放宽生育外，政府应推出措施鼓励结婚及生育，如子女免税额、弹性工作安排、增加日间托儿服务及推出措施减少育儿成本。最后，中短期政府可逐步推迟退休年龄及加快新城市化(包括改革户籍制度)以纾缓劳工短缺。

美股下跌。道指创下2月以来表现最差一天，科技股表现较好。

A-share rose while HK stocks crashed on Tuesday. Kweichow Moutai rose 4.3%and led the broad market. Cyclical stocks tumbled. In HK market except consumer stables the other 11 Hang Seng composite sectors all fell with raw material sector falling the most. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 4.78 billion while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$4.93 billion. The People’s Bank of China released monetary policy report for 1Q2021. It reiterated that the rise of the US treasury yield and that Fed adjusts its monetary policy would not have big impact on China. It also believed that the overall inflation is controllable in China. Yet international investors are quite concerned about the inflation and that Fed might take back liquidity earlier than expected due to the higher-than-expected inflation. The European stock markets tumbled as well on Tuesday.  However, the US dollar index did not rise as usual but dived below 90 for the first time since Feb. 25th, 2021. It seems that market expectation is in chaos. 

The seventh population census in China.  China is facing population trap and government needs to take measures to deal with the rising elderly group and the decreasing birth rate. JP Morgan suggested that government should nullify birth control policy or loosen on birth control. Moreover, to increase birth rate government can give tax exemption and subsidies to those couples who have more children, provide baby nursery services and measures to cut back the costs of raising children. In the near-term government can promote delaying retirement age as well as reforming household registration system to lessen the pressure of labor shortage.

The US stocks fell. DOW tumbled 1.4%, its worst day since February. Nasdaq recovered losses and little changed at close. The key CPI data will come out on Wednesday. Market expects that April CPI will grow 3.6% year-on-year, which would be the highest since 2011.

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