周四A股和港股均放量大跌。周期股领跌。一方面周期股票近期涨幅较大，有获利回吐压力，另一方面国务院专门召开会议应对大宗商品上涨的消息也给板块构成压力。阿里巴巴在2021年1季度因巨额罚款鞥上市以来首次季度亏损，美股下跌超过6%。北上资金净流出56.4亿人民币，南下资金净流入42.9亿港币，为连续第三天抄底。

通胀会否短暂上升之后回落？这是近期市场关注的焦点。周三出炉的美国4月生产者价格指数同比上涨6%，与消费者价格指数一样超出市场预期，显示美国国内已经出现全面通胀的格局。4月超预期上涨的消费者价格指数一部分是由于供应链受损而导致的，如因半导体短缺，计算机和二手车价格分别同比（下同）上涨4.1%和10%。还有一部分是由于经济复苏强劲导致的，如飞机票和酒店价格分别上涨10.1%和8.8%。但是这些行业只占美国经济的7%。另外93%的通胀水平只上涨了0.3%，符合预期。贝莱德固定收益首席分析师认为考虑到已经和即将实施的财政和货币政策，新冠危机的净结果就是通胀上升，至少在近期是这样。金融和房地产领域的泡沫对应对危机的政策提出挑战，如果政策不能够及时调整，通胀的风险将会提升。但是美联储将就业目标放在通胀目标前面，如果就业达不到目标，美联储可能宁愿通胀上升。中国4月生产者价格指数上涨幅度也超出市场预期。当前美国可能处在经济过热期，而中国处在滞涨期。过去三个月美股和美元指数上涨，资金逃离新兴市场。5月14日明晟中国指数收盘在104.81，从2月17日高点下跌20%。跌入技术性熊市。新兴市场走向取决于美元指数。超预期的通胀数据对美元指数提供了支撑，但美元指数仍徘徊在90的低位。

美股上涨，结束了连续三天的下跌。投资者忽略了4月生产者价格指数超预期的消息。上周首次申请失业救济人数为473,000,预期490,000。自今年1月以来，首次申请失业救济人数已接近腰斩，反应就业市场持续复苏。受此消息影响，经济复苏股上涨。科技股中苹果上涨，特斯拉下跌。一些分析师认为美国经济复苏前景确定，应逢低买入。但也有分析师认为应权衡通胀前景对货币政策的影响。

Both A-share and HK stocks crashed on Thursday. Cyclical stocks fell sharply following the US market crash overnight. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 428 million while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$9.8 billion, which was 100% increase from that on Tuesday.  

Will the inflation be transitory? The higher-than-expected consumer price index is mostly related with the pandemic.There were factors such as supply chain congestion that added to the pressures.For example, due to the chip shortage computer prices went up 5.1% year-on-year (the same below)  and used car prices up 10%. At the same time, an aggressively recovering economy pushed prices for airline tickets (up 10.2% in April) and hotels (8.8% higher). But these sectors only accounted 7% of the overall economy. The other 93% of the economy rose 0.3%, just in line with expectations. Analyst from BlackRock believed that when factoring in all the monetary and fiscal stimulus that’s been delivered (or shortly will be), the Covid crisis seems likely to be a net inflationary event, at least in the near term. The risk of overheating in multiple places across the financial and real asset arenas is becoming more and more of a realistic challenge for future policy, as some have suggested, and without an evolution of what heretofore has been policy reacting to emergencyeconomic conditions, the risk from this will only grow.

The US stocks rose. Initial jobless claims, week ended May 8, was 473,000 vs. 490,000 expected and an upwardly revised 507,000 during prior week. Continuing claims, week ended May 1 was 3.655 million vs. 3.650 million expected and an upwardly revised 3.700 million during prior week. Weekly jobless claims have nearly halved since the start of 2021, and have fallen precipitously from their pandemic-era high of more than 6 million last year. Prior to the pandemic, new jobless claims averaged just over 200,000 per week throughout 2019. Reopening stocks rallied. Apple rose while Tesla fell. 

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