周五A股和港股均放量大涨。上周（下同）上证综指、创业板指和科创50分别上涨2.09%、4.24%和2.9%。申万28个行业中，19个行业上涨，9个行业下跌，医药生物和休闲服务领涨，周期性行业领跌。港股恒生指数、国企指数和科技指数分别下跌2.04%、2.75%和4.9%。恒生12个综合行业中10个下跌，只有医疗保健和必需消费上涨，原材料板块跌幅最大。北上和南下资金分别净流入27.1亿人民币和172.6亿港币。北上资金连续5周净流入，南下资金是4月23日以来最大的周度净流入。

不知道的不知道。投资人对未来的预测通常是线性外推。大多数情况下未来和现在不会有太大区别，因此，线性外推是合理的。但我们也经常遇到未来和现在的明显不同，特别是在周期的拐点以及重大危机发生的时候。很少有人预测到2008年的全球金融危机，对于新冠疫情这种百年一遇的全球性流行疾病的发生，更是没有人能够提前预测。当然，更出乎意料的是虽然发生了2008年全球金融危机和2020年持续至今的全球性大流行疾病，前者发生后美股出现了持续10年的牛市，仅仅被新冠疫情所终结。后者更是见证了剧烈震荡后美股在美联储的现代货币理论支撑下的持续走牛。所以，在知道的知道、知道的不知道和不知道的不知道中，最后一个是投资人最应该警惕的，因为很多时候不知道的不知道可能是决定市场走势的重要变量。这时刻提醒投资人对自己的能力不要过于自信以及对总体市场要怀有敬畏之心。今年以来，美国经济和美股表现较好。市场对美联储退出量化宽松的时间点不断提前。按照以往经验，美联储通常会先削减债券购买规模。因此，市场十分关注美联储缩减债券规模的时间点以及这个举措对市场的影响。我们比较了当前全球经济和股市与2013年美联储缩减债券购买规模时的表现，以及美国国债收益率当前与2013年时走势的差异。我们认为这次也许不一样，即美联储缩减债券购买规模不见得一定会引起美元上涨和资金流出发展中国家。具体请参见我们发表在微信公众号枫瑞视点中的这次也许不一样。

美股周五大涨。4月零售数据低于预期，市场预计货币宽松持续。

Both A-share and HK stocks rallied last Friday. Last week (the same below)  major indexes in A-share rose while major indexes in HK market fell. Cyclicals fell the most in both markets while medicine rose the most as pandemic emerged in some provinces in China. North-bound capital saw net outflow of RMB 2.71 billion while south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$17.26 billion. North-bound capital has seen net inflow for five weeks in a row while south-bound capital last week was the biggest net inflow from April 23rd.   

The unknown unknown. Investors usually extrapolate the future based on what happens currently. In most cases the future would not change too much. But when economic cycle is at turning point or major crises happen, the future would be quite different from the current. Among the known known, the known unknown and the unknown unknown it tuns out that the unknown unknown plays the most significant role in determining market trend. Few people ever predicted the global financial crises in 2008. It is impossible to forecast that COVID-19 pandemic would happen in 2020. The 10-year bull market of the US stocks after the global financial crises is totally out of expectation. So is the bull market in the US since March 2020. Currently market focus is on when Fed will taper bond purchase scale. We compared economic growth, stock market performance and interest rate trends in 2013 with 2021 and found that the US 10-year Treasury nominal rate and real rate went different directions due to that the inflation was at high levels this time. This never happens in history. So if Fed begins to taper, would the US dollar appreciate as what happened in 2013? If the US dollar does not appreciate, the impact of Fed’s tapering on the emerging markets might not be that bad. More details can be found in "这次也许不一样" (this time might be different) published in our official wechat--Maple insight

The US stocks rallied. Retail sales in April rose 0% month-on-month versus 1% expected. Market believed that the lower-than-expected retail sales data would delay Fed’s tapering. 

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。