周一A股抱团股再度大涨。因中小市值公司爆出市值管理的消息，周一抱团股上涨，而部分中小市值个股及ST股大幅下跌。申万28个行业中17个上涨，11个下跌。其中上周五领涨的非银金融板块领跌，电气设备、有色金属和食品饮料领涨。港股恒指、国企指数和科技指数分别上涨0.5%、0.95%和1.78%。恒生12个综合行业中11个上涨，只有公用事业下跌，上周大幅调整的原材料板块领涨，科技板块紧随其后。北上和南下资金分别净流入25.8亿人民币和84.6亿港币。北上资金净买入贵州茅台和美的7.6亿和6.6亿人民币，南下资金净买入腾讯和美团30亿和9.6亿港币。

经济环比动能放缓。4月经济数据显示工业生产和投资增速超预期，而消费增速不及预期，经济增长动能可能环比放缓。4月工业增加值和社会消费品零售总额同比分别增长9.8%和17.7%，1-4月固定资产投资同比增速为19.9%。社会消费品零售总额同比增速低于市场预期部分与疫情有关，另一方面反应了经济内生动能还不强。我们在2021年A股投资展望中提到，以官方制造业采购经理人指数作为衡量指标，从2005年以来我国一共经历了四轮完整的库存周期，其中上行期持续13-23个月，上行幅度1.4-20个百分点；下行期持续23-28个月，下行幅度在1.4-19.8个百分点。一个完整的库存周期持续36-51个月。本轮库存周期应是第五个，上行期始于2020年2月，当时中国官方制造业采购经理人指数为35.7，到今年3月份，该指数达到51.9，上行了16.2个百分点。从时间和幅度来看，库存周期的上行期可能已经结束。4月中国制造业采购经理人指数以及刚刚发布的4月份经济数据来看，在一定程度上确认上行期的结束。未来将会面临库存周期的下行期。经济增速放缓初期，早周期行业的增长可能要面临挑战，包括汽车和房地产。市场预期也将从央行何时加息转向央行何时开始放水。

美股周一小幅下跌。科技股下跌拖累股市，苹果和奈飞下跌0.9%，特斯拉下跌2%以上。瑞银分析师认为尽管通胀可能会引发担忧，但市场总体上涨趋势仍将在周期股的带领下维持。沃尔玛和家得宝将会在周二报告1季度业绩。

Both A-share and HK stocks rose on Monday. The news that some listed mid-to-small-cap companies manipulated stock prices sent these companies’ stock prices down sharply. Group-holding stocks rallied as they are all big-cap companies.  17 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with electric equipment, non-ferrous metal and food and beverage rising the most. The non-bank financial which performed the best last Friday fell the most. In HK only utilities fell out of the 12 sectors. The raw material sector which fell sharply last week rose the most and tech sector followed.

China economic growth rate might be slowing down. In April both China’s industrial value-added and fixed asset investment delivered growth rate above expectation. But consumption came in lower than expected. Both the leading indicator official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in April and the economic data released on Monday signals that China’s economic growth is slowing down month-on-month. We analyzed inventory cycle in “The investment outlook for A-share in2021” and found that based on official manufacturing PMI China experienced four full inventory cycles. The upswing stage of an inventory cycle usually lasts 13-23 months and downward stage lasts 23-28 months. The official manufacturing PMI can go up by 1.4-20 percentage point in upswing stage and go down by 1.4-19.8 percentage point in downward stage. A full inventory cycle lasts 36-51 months. The most recent inventory cycle began in Feb. 2020 when official manufacturing PMI reached the lowest point 35.7. It then went up by 16.2 percentage point till March 2021 and reached 51.9. We judged that the upswing stage of the inventory cycle might conclude and the downward stage might begin. The early-stage sectors including auto and property might face growth challenges as economy slows down. Market now expects the central bank to inject liquidity rather than to raise interest rate.

The US stocks fell slightly.Tech stocks fell. Inflation is still a concern but market might continue to rise in regardless of this.

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