周二A股缩量。上证指数上涨0.38%，而创业板指下跌0.73%。申万28个行业中19个上涨，9个下跌。其中国防军工、采掘和钢铁行业领涨，医药生物、建筑材料和电气设备领跌。港股恒指、国企指数和科技指数分别上涨1.42%、1.43%和1.53%。恒生12个综合行业全部上涨，其中能源和地产建筑领涨。首批9只基础设施公募REITS上市的消息刺激港股上市的物业管理股票大涨。周三香港佛诞日沪深港通暂停交易，南下资金净流入43.8亿港币。李宁和美团分别净流入10.6亿和8.9亿港币。

美元指数跌破90意味着什么？周二美元指数跌破90关口，创下两个月以来的新低。非美货币包括欧元、英镑和日元都直线上涨。随着英国和欧元区疫苗接种速度提升，市场预期他们的经济增速将会明显改善。同时，美联储保持鸽派立场也意味着短期内加息的概率很小。这些因素推动美元走贬。美元贬值意味着新兴市场货币升值，对于以出口为导向的许多新兴市场国家，这将推动他们的出口增速抬升。同时，美元贬值也会推动资金流入新兴市场的股票和债券。我们在2020年12月《港股明年大概率跑赢A股》中分析了美元指数走势对港股相对A股超额收益的影响。一般情况下，美元贬值，即美元指数走低，港股的国企指数相对A股的上证指数有正的超额收益，即港股跑赢A股；而美元升值，港股的国企指数相对A股的上证指数有负的超额收益，即港股跑输A股。我们去年12月判断今年美元指数将会继续贬值趋势，因此，港股将会跑赢A股。今年1月到3月底，美元指数因受到美国疫苗接种进展超预期以及经济复苏强劲的影响从89.4167的低位上涨到最高点93.286。与之相对应，上证指数年初至今上涨1.61%，而国企指数下跌0.78%。周二美元指数下跌到89.7878，据1月的低点一步之遥。我们判断未来美元指数大概率突破前期低点继续下行，港股将会跑赢A股。

美股尾盘跳水。大型科技股下跌，大空头做空特斯拉拖累市场。4月新建住宅开工数下降9.5%，折年率157万套，预期170万套，因原材料供应不足。

A-share mixed on contracted volume. Shanghai Composite Index rose while Chinext Index fell. 19 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with militaryand defense, mining and non-ferrous metal rising the most. HK stocks rallied with all of the 12 sectors rising. The news that the first 9 mutual REITS fund got approval for issuance sent the stock prices of property management companies listed in HK up. The south-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$ 4.38 billion. Lining and Meituan saw net inflow of HK 1.06 billion and 890 million respectively.

What does that the US dollar index fall below 90 mean? On Tuesday the US dollar index fell below 90 for the first time in two months. The increased vaccination rollout in the Europe and the UK means that their economic growth prospects would improve. This pushed Euro and pound higher. And a dovish Fed means that interest rate increase would not come soon. Both factors pushed the US dollar lower. A depreciating US dollar is beneficial to the emerging markets. Firstly the emerging markets’ currency would appreciate and capital would flow into their stock and bond market. Secondly, export would increase in emerging markets as depreciating currency improves their competitive advantage. We found that if the US dollar depreciates Hang Seng China Enterprises Index would outperform Shanghai Composite Index and vice versa. From Jan. to March the US dollar index appreciated from 89 to 93 due to that the vaccination rollout was above expectation and economic recovery went on smoothly in the US. Yea-todate Shanghai Composite Index went up by 1.61% while China Enterprises Index fell by 0.78%. Going forward our best guess is that the US dollar will continue to depreciate and HK stock market would outperform A-share.

The US stocks dived at closing hours. Mega-tech stocks continued to fall at the news that a big short was shorting Tesla. The U.S. home construction in April dropped 9.5% month-on-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.57 million units versus 1.76 million units expected. 

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