A股和港股均出人意料的强势。虽然隔夜海外市场大跌，但上证指数仅下跌0.11%，创业板指上涨接近1个百分点。港股虽盘中跌超过一个百分点，但收盘恒生指数仅下跌0.5%，而国企指数下跌0.11%。A股申万28个行业中11个上涨，17个下跌,其中家用电器、食品饮料和非银金融涨幅领先。受国常会讨论大宗商品价格上涨问题消息影响，A股和港股的周期股领跌两市。

为什么如此强势？上证指数从2月18日下跌，到3月8日下跌幅度达到10.8%，之后一直横盘整理。同期申万28个行业中9个行业上涨，19个行业下跌。抱团股所处的行业下跌幅度居前。港股恒生指数从2月18日高点到5月13日的低点也下跌了10.8%，之后小幅反弹。恒生12个综合行业中只有综合、公用事业和地产建筑上涨，其余9个行业下跌。其中高估值的科技板块下跌30%。从2月18日到5月15日，发达国家股指节节攀升。在全球16个主要国家和地区的指数中，深成指、恒生指数和上证指数分别位居涨幅榜从高到低的第16、15和12位，意味着A股和港股熊冠全球。而从估值的角度看，以静态市净率看，上证指数和恒生指数分别为1.5倍和1.3倍，位居全球16个主要国家和地区估值从低到高第三和第四位。以静态市盈率看，上证指数和恒生指数的静态市盈率分别为14.8和14.3倍,位列全球16个主要国家和地区从低到高的第三和第二名。因此，无论上证指数还是恒生指数都是全球的估值洼地。另一方面，美元指数从1月到3月底走强之后下跌，在5月19日跌破90之后，20日再次跌破90并创出年初以来的新低。美元走软也意味着资金将会流入新兴市场，具体分析请见5月18日发表在枫瑞视点微信公众号上的美元指数跌破90意味着什么？。我们也认为港股将会在接下来的反弹中跑赢A股，具体分析请参见港股明年大概率跑赢A股。

美股上涨。上周首次申请失业救济人数为442000人，好于预期，并创出新冠疫情以来的新低。受超预期经济数据刺激，美股结束三天下跌，科技股大涨。美财政部要求通过比特币转账超过1万美金需要向国内税务署报告。比特币反弹幅度缩减，但仍回到了40000美金的水平。

Both A-share and HK market were unexpectedly resilient.Despite the turbulence in overseas markets overnight Shanghai Composite Index only fell0.11% while Chinext Index rose close to 1%. 11 out of 28 sectors in A-share rose with home appliance, food and beverage and non-bank financials rising the most. Hang Seng Index closed down 0.5% while it was down more than 1% during the trading hours.  China Enterprises Index fell only 0.11%. Cyclical sectors fell the most in both A-share and HK market at the news that the state council standing committee brought up with measures to deal with the rising commodity prices.  

Why were both A-share and HK market so resilient? Shanghai Composite Index fell 10.8% from Feb. 18th to March 8thand bounced up and down since then.  During the same period 9 out of 28 sectors rose in A-share. The high-valued group-holding stocks fell the most. Hang Seng Index fell 10.8% from Feb. 18thto May 13th. 3 out of 12 sectors in HK rose, which were conglomerates,utilities and property and construction sector. The high-valued tech sector fell 30% during the same period. From Feb. 18th to May 15th Shenzhen Component Index, Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index was ranked at 16th, 15thand 12th among the 16 global major stock indexes based on increase. In another word both A-share and HK markets lagged far behind other major indexes. Yet both Shanghai Composite Index and Hang Seng Index were valued at the lowest levels among the globe. Moreover, with the US dollar index going down more capital would flow into these two markets.

The US stocks concluded three-day losing streak and rallied.The initial jobless claim last week was 442,000, better than expected and was the lowest since March20th 2020. Tech stocks bounced back strongly. The Treasury Department required those who transfer money above US$10,000 to report to Internal Revenue  Service. Bitcoin bounced back to US$ 40,000. 

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