周一A股小幅上涨，港股小幅下跌。受国家调控大宗商品价格影响，有色、钢铁和煤炭行业的公司股价都有一定幅度的调整。市场对大宗商品价格和相关股票的未来走势存在较大分歧。历史上看，大宗商品价格和相关股价的涨跌幅基本一致。而本轮大宗商品的股价已经创下了2008年以来的新高，但股价与2008年相比有很大差距。一方面市场对大宗商品持续上涨存在较大疑虑；另一方面，新投资人在从业生涯中只经历了大宗商品价格的持续下降，没看到过持续上涨，因此对大宗商品的股票没有兴趣。但未来投资环境可能会发生变化，近几年发展起来的投资逻辑可能不适用于未来。

投资环境发生变化的一个例子。1958年夏天，历史上第一次，长期政府债券的收益率明显超过了普通股的股息收益率。1958年之前，股息收益率超过债券收益率被投资者视为天经地义的事情，因为投资股票的风险更大。按照这个标准，每当股息收益率低于债券收益率时，就是股票价格过高因此需要抛售股票的时候了。历史上1891年、1907年和1929年，都发生了股息收益率低于债券收益率的情况，当年都发生了股市的大崩盘。但二战后，各国纷纷转向纸币本位制，由此导致的慢性通货膨胀改变了投资者判断股票与债券的投资价值标准。股票代表着对真实资产的所有权，其价格随着通货膨胀而上涨。当通货膨胀不可避免时，股票是对冲通胀的唯一方式。这个例子说明只有在基本的经济与金融环境保持不变时，价值评估标准才会有效。但是，经济和金融环境如果发生变化，则估值标准也将发生重大变化。2009年金融危机以来，世界经济增速都保持在较低水平，利率和通胀也保持在低位。但我们认为今年的经济和金融环境将发生变化。首先经济增速将会高于以往；其次债券的收益率有可能持续上升；最后，通胀可能不再是遥不可及的。这些变化也将对投资产生重大影响。股票仍是较好的投资选择，但成长股和价值股表现可能会不同于以往。

美股大涨。新冠新增病例降到去年6月以来的低点。FAANG股票和复苏股涨幅领先。因大宗商品价格下跌，市场对通胀担忧缓解，债券收益率回落。

On Monday A-share rose while HK stocks fell slightly. Dueto that the government took measures to control the commodity prices, the relevant stocks tumbled in both A-share and HK market. It is worth noting that commodity prices have reached or rose above the high in 2008 but the related stock prices lagged far behind. On the one hand market doubts that the commodity prices can rise for a relatively longer time; on the other hand newcomers in the stock market only witness the continuous fall of commodity prices and have never invested in commodity stocks ever.  But investment backdrop can change dramatically and investors should prepare themselves for that to come sooner or later.   

A case in point of the investment backdrop change. In the summer of 1958 dividend yield of stocks fell below bond yield, which caused alot of panic in the stock market. Prior to 1958 dividend yield of stocks washigher than bond as investors considered stocks riskier than bonds. Every timestock dividend yields were lower than bond yields stock market crashed as what happenedin 1891, 1907 and 1929. After the World War II major nations gave up gold standard and resorted to paper currency standard, the long-term inflation prospects promoted investors to buy stocks as stocks, which represents the partial ownership of a company, can defend the long-term inflation. This case illustrates that valuation matrix works well only when economic and financial conditions remain the same.Once economic and financial conditions change dramatically the previous valuation matrix will not work well. We judge that in 2021 investment backdrop will make some shift. The inflation might come back as well as the higherinterest rate. Remain alert to the signals of changes.

The US stocks rallied. The COVID-19 new cases have fallen to the lowest levels since June 2020. Also with commodity prices falling market was relieved with the inflation pressure. Bond yield fell as well.FAANG stocks and reopening stocks rose the most.

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