周二A股和港股均放量大涨。这标志着A股和港股为期三个多月的调整大概率结束，市场对未来不确定因素的预期已较充分，无论上证指数还是恒生指数估值都处在全球较低水平。A股涨幅居前的行业是休闲服务、食品饮料和非银金融，港股涨幅领先的是非必需消费、科技和金融行业。北上资金净流入217亿人民币，为沪深股通开通以来净流入最高的一天。南下资金净流入78.6亿港币，连续第十个交易日保持净流入。

什么推动美元贬值？与A股大涨相对应的是美元指数再次创下1月以来的新低。美元指数自5月18日跌破90大关后（我们对此的分析请见美元指数跌破90意味着什么？），周二终于跌破5月18日的低点达到89.6957，离1月的低点89.4167仅一步之遥。如果跌破1月低点，则前低是2018年2月的低点88.5685。这个低点如果再跌破，下一个低点是2014年5月的79.0691。美元指数能否一再下挫不仅与欧元、日元以及英镑的走势有关，而且与美元储备货币地位和作为世界贸易主要交易结算工具的使用有关。截至2020年底，在世界整体外汇储备中，以美元计价的资产占比已降至59%，连续第5年下降，创25年以来最低水平。美元计价资产占比最高时为2001年，曾超过70%，但自此以后下降。按照国际货币基金组织（IMF）的分析，美元计价资产的份额创纪录新低，短期来看，是由于美元贬值导致——截至2020年12月7日，美元指数较年内高点下跌了11.5%，较年初下跌了5.8%；从长期看，这体现了各国央行正在将外汇储备逐步从美元转向其他资产。人民币截止2020年底占全球储备货币比例为2.25%。过去十年，欧元在国际贸易结算中地位逐步提升，导致美元结算比例从本世纪初的70%下跌到38.43%，欧元占比为37.13%。而人民币占全球贸易结算的比例不到2%。人民币年初以来对美元升值2%。美元贬值和人民币升值利好人民币资产。

美股微跌。美联储内部对何时缩减债券购买规模有分歧，有的认为经济仍处在疫情状态下，不应考虑该议题，而有的提出下个月就应讨论该议题。

On Tuesday both A-share and HK market rallied on heavy volume. This signals that the 3-month correction for A-share and HK market might conclude.  The valuation of both A-share and HK market is at the lowest levels around the globe. In A-share leisure service, food and beverage and non-bank financials rose the most while in HK market discretionary consumption, tech and financials rose the most. North-bound capital saw net inflow of RMB 21.7 billion, which is the highest daily net inflow since Shanghai- and Shenzhen-connect started trading.South-bound capital saw net inflow of HK$7.86 billion, which was the tenth day net inflow in a row.

What factors prompt the US dollar depreciation? The relative strength of US dollar to the currencies of other major developed countries determines the US dollar trend. But the long-term determining factors for US dollar should be its reserve currency position and how much it is used in global trade. At the end of 2020 the assets valued in US dollar comprised 59%of the total foreign reserve assets globally. This percentage had fallen for five years in a row and was the lowest level in 25 years. International Monetary Fund pointed out that this falling percentage was due to the depreciation of the US dollar in the short term and the efforts of central banks in the world to diversify reserve currencies in the long term. As a contrast, RMB was 2.25% of the reserve currencies in the world. Over the last 10 years, Euro rose fast as a trading settlement currency and now takes 37.13% of global trade. The percentage of global trade settled by US dollar has decreased from 70% at the beginning of this century to 34% lately. As a contrast global trade settled by RMB was only 2% of total.  

The US stocks fell slightly.There is some disagreement among the Fed. Some thought that as the US was still in pandemic the Fed should only talk about tapering in months ahead. While others thought that it would appropriate to talk about tapering in June as economy recovery went well.

声明：本市场点评由北京枫瑞资产管理有限公司（以下简称“枫瑞资产”）“枫瑞视点”微信公众号提供和拥有版权，授权上海海狮资产管理有限公司转载。在任何情况下文中信息或所表述的意见不构成对任何人的投资建议，枫瑞资产不对任何人因使用本文中的内容所引发的损失负任何责任。未经枫瑞资产书面授权，本文中的内容均不得以任何侵犯枫瑞资产版权的方式使用和转载。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。